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@Nimble-Fun-Maracas

#2,895,42797

0x38657069859c7359d8324fe652907529ea85fcbe

92d· 16460 markets · 15079 tradesVol: $848,8462026-06-24T05:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 81%20/20
Profit Factor 143.79x15/15
Sharpe 0.66112/15
Sortino 34.18310/10
EV $+13.55710/10
HHI 29210/10
Profit Days 81%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Nimble-Fun-Maracas is a highly active trader on Polymarket, engaging in over 15,000 trades across 1,258 markets over 424 days. Despite a substantial total trading volume of $848,846, the trader currently holds a negative net PnL of $-9,652.32 and ranks #2,895,427 globally. Their portfolio value remains stable at $3,239.88, supported by a strong Smart Score of 97/100, indicating elite trading skills, and a bot score of 75/100, suggesting significant use of automated strategies.

The trader’s style is characterized by a high-frequency, low-risk approach with a notable 93.7% win rate and a profit factor of 59.68. Nimble-Fun-Maracas predominantly uses automated trading (as reflected in their bot score) and maintains a conservative timing pattern with zero days of max drawdown duration. They favor selling positions extensively, with an 88% sell percentage, and avoid weather markets entirely, implying a focus on more predictable or liquid markets. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.66 reflects moderate risk-adjusted returns with a stable equity trend.

Key strengths for Nimble-Fun-Maracas include consistent performance, demonstrated by their badges for accuracy, cool-headedness, and win streaks. However, the negative overall PnL combined with a low portfolio value relative to volume suggests that high trading frequency and automated strategies have yet to translate into profitability. The flat equity trend and drawdown control may indicate risk management discipline, but persistent losses raise concerns about long-term sustainability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 81%
Bot
Score 75/100
Win Streak
62 wins in a row
Consistent
87/108 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,735,849$-4,931Vol: $240,680
CRYPTO#76,188$131Vol: $171,791
🌤️ WEATHER#283,625$-1,773Vol: $133,364
🏛️ POLITICS#1,548,877$-315Vol: $22,462
🎭 CULTURE#12,285$238Vol: $12,933
💰 FINANCE#614,993$-136Vol: $7,766
📈 ECONOMICS#657,372$-452Vol: $5,713
📢 MENTIONS#30,387$3Vol: $412

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-9,652
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$848,846
Total Redeem
$26,180
Portfolio
$3,240
Predictions
16460
total markets
Trades
1830B / 13249S
Daily Volume
$93
Account Age
92d
since Mar 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-2
Vol: $0
Week
$-7
Vol: $10
Month
$-463
Vol: $18,920
All Time
$-9,652
Vol: $848,846

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
886W / 176L events
Realized PnL
$50,308
Win Rate
94%
163W / 11L
Profit Factor
59.68x
Avg Win
$65
Avg Loss
$-16

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,180 (49.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$2,744
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$1,323
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner$1,113
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$679
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner$673
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)$663
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs$470
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B$445
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A$411
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff$393

Top Losers

Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy$-75
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic$-48
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan$-24
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs playersclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le$-19
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Chall$-7
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$-2
Will Solana reach $95 on May 8?$-2
BMW Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Giustino vs Andrea Pellegrino$-1
Celtics vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline$-0
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.661
Sortino
34.183
HHI
292
Diversified
EV per $1
$13.557
Kelly %
91.2%
Half-Kelly
45.6%
Top-1 market
10.1%
Top-5 markets
31.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
127.2
Very active
Markets / Day
10.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.1m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
19.0

Bot Detection

#6
75
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 5.67 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.22 — human randomness127 trades/day — automation11 markets/day — mass coverage1273 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
990 entries
<=2
1160 entries
<=5
1235 entries
<=10
1252 entries
<=20
1257 entries
<=50
1258 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.1%
Mid (20-55c)18.8%
High (>55c)80.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 13%

Other$10,490
Panichelli$6
Los Angeles$5
Paris$0
Atlanta$0
Dallas$0
Chicago$0
Miami$0
San Francisco$0
Denver$0
Seattle$0
Houston$0
New York City$0
Warsh$0
Toronto$0
Austin$0
Wuhan$0
London$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
968

Single bracket

<=1
892 brackets
<=2
924 brackets
<=3
933 brackets
<=4
944 brackets
<=5
948 brackets
<=8
959 brackets
>8
9 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/24/2026, 6:17:54 PM3 trades$100 min
2/25/2026, 1:48:28 PM1 trades$00 min
2/26/2026, 4:37:30 AM29 trades$4000 min
2/26/2026, 5:32:06 AM1 trades$90 min
2/26/2026, 6:59:00 AM7 trades$11 min
2/26/2026, 5:24:30 PM4 trades$14 min
2/26/2026, 7:03:10 PM24 trades$44 min
2/26/2026, 7:41:48 PM7 trades$12 min
2/26/2026, 8:03:44 PM15 trades$28 min
2/26/2026, 8:24:04 PM16 trades$25 min
2/26/2026, 10:00:28 PM4 trades$21 min
2/26/2026, 10:59:48 PM9 trades$31 min
2/26/2026, 11:26:50 PM5 trades$10 min
2/27/2026, 12:10:46 AM12 trades$22 min
2/27/2026, 12:37:38 AM19 trades$25 min
2/27/2026, 1:07:24 AM17 trades$23 min
2/27/2026, 1:17:38 AM24 trades$212 min
2/27/2026, 2:13:10 AM64 trades$516 min
2/27/2026, 2:58:04 AM2 trades$500 min
2/27/2026, 4:03:58 AM10 trades$26 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-12
04-01
04-19
05-09
06-27
08-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.5% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
87.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event