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@Nippy-Legume

#2,859,75422

0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135

235d· 101 markets · 4714 tradesVol: $5,478,2892026-06-15T03:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 48%9/20
Profit Factor 0.48x0/15
HHI 43910/10
Profit Days 41%3/10
DD/Peak 249%0/10

Summary

Nippy-Legume is an experienced trader on Polymarket, active for over a year with nearly 4,714 trades across 101 markets. Despite a substantial trading volume of over $5.4 million, their net PnL stands at a significant loss of approximately $155,000, placing them at rank #2,859,754 on the global leaderboard. The trader’s portfolio value is around $44,000, and their Smart Score of 22 indicates below-average performance relative to peers.

The trading style of Nippy-Legume appears diversified, with engagement in many markets but no exposure to weather markets. Their win rate is exactly 50%, and a profit factor of 0.50 suggests losses outweigh gains. The trader exhibits a semi-automated approach, combining bot and manual trading, and shows a notable sell percentage of 35%. Badges such as Lottery Player and Contrarian hint at a high-risk, unconventional strategy with potential for both significant wins and losses. Timing patterns seem inconsistent, evidenced by a negative Sharpe ratio and a downward equity trend.

Nippy-Legume’s strengths include extensive market activity and the ability to maintain a large portfolio despite losses. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and ongoing equity decline highlight risk management issues. The below-average Smart Score and profit factor indicate challenges in sustaining profitability on Polymarket, suggesting that while the trader is experienced, their current strategy carries substantial downside risk.

Badges

6
Lottery Player
37% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
81% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 30.5 entries/market
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$907,851
High Roller
$2,287/day

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#1,599,464$-134,395Vol: $3,608,638
CRYPTO#1,580,528$-27,047Vol: $1,340,213
📈 ECONOMICS#280$22,843Vol: $349,531
💰 FINANCE#629,195$-10,551Vol: $117,992
🎭 CULTURE#557,454$-2Vol: $38,333

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-154,723
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,478,289
Total Redeem
$8
Portfolio
$44,082
Predictions
101
total markets
Trades
3085B / 1629S
Daily Volume
$2,287
Account Age
235d
since Nov 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1,243
Vol: $74
Week
$1,243
Vol: $152,827
Month
$-15,137
Vol: $605,057
All Time
$-154,723
Vol: $5,478,289

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
45%
25W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$-83,447
Win Rate
50%
38W / 38L
Profit Factor
0.5x
Avg Win
$2,395
Avg Loss
$-4,773

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$25,128
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$10,550
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?$10,504
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$6,951
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?$5,081
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$4,119
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?$3,688
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$3,454
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$3,323
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$3,163

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?$-35,725
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$-23,562
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?$-18,700
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?$-16,397
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-15,174
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?$-15,041
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?$-10,367
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?$-9,992
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?$-5,121
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?$-4,648

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.236
Sortino
-0.248
HHI
439
Diversified
EV per $1
$-1.344
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
33.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.1
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.4m
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 178s — typical for humanSize CV 3.00 — diverse, typical for human34% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
22 entries
<=2
30 entries
<=5
44 entries
<=10
55 entries
<=20
70 entries
<=50
84 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)36.9%
Mid (20-55c)50%
High (>55c)13.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.6%

Other$-90,343

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
56

Single bracket

<=1
35 brackets
<=2
44 brackets
<=3
50 brackets
<=4
53 brackets
<=5
54 brackets
<=8
56 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2025, 3:40:35 AM2 trades$5,1301 min
11/3/2025, 3:56:59 AM1 trades$2,3200 min
11/3/2025, 4:40:21 AM1 trades$800 min
11/3/2025, 5:14:49 AM1 trades$2,4620 min
11/8/2025, 12:51:09 AM2 trades$1,9720 min
11/8/2025, 12:56:45 AM14 trades$8,52114 min
11/8/2025, 1:17:47 AM4 trades$4,7745 min
11/8/2025, 1:29:25 AM3 trades$230 min
11/8/2025, 1:39:03 AM1 trades$1,8810 min
11/8/2025, 1:53:39 AM4 trades$1,7586 min
11/8/2025, 2:12:17 AM1 trades$8600 min
11/8/2025, 2:29:19 AM1 trades$50 min
11/8/2025, 2:42:39 AM1 trades$30 min
11/8/2025, 2:57:11 AM1 trades$50 min
11/8/2025, 3:17:31 AM1 trades$10 min
11/8/2025, 4:39:43 AM2 trades$1933 min
11/8/2025, 5:09:11 AM5 trades$1,8693 min
11/8/2025, 5:27:43 AM2 trades$2,1332 min
11/8/2025, 5:38:25 AM1 trades$7800 min
11/8/2025, 5:53:15 AM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-10
02-28
04-15
05-31
07-01
09-01
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event