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@Oblong-Riser

#94069

0x40604cb1f958c03bea0b18aa43e4cb0d62f33ec3

287d· 1125 markets · 7461 tradesVol: $21,380,604 @Kaanha__2026-06-23T13:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
Sharpe 0.4729/15
Sortino 54.81410/10
HHI 15310/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Oblong-Riser is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 7,461 trades across 412 markets over 335 days. Ranked #940 globally on the PnL leaderboard, they have accumulated a net profit of $194,957.90 from a total trading volume exceeding $21 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $160,077.71, supported by a good Smart Score of 69/100 and an upward equity trend, indicating steady growth.

The trader’s strategy appears diversified given the large number of markets engaged, though they do not trade weather markets. With a 67.2% win rate and a sell percentage of 27%, Oblong-Riser favors a mix of holding and timely selling, balancing risk and reward. Their relatively low Sharpe Ratio of 0.47 and a profit factor of 0.04 suggest a moderate risk profile with moderate returns, while their Bot Score of 40 indicates a hybrid approach combining manual decisions with some automation. Timing seems consistent, with no recorded max drawdown duration, reflecting disciplined position management.

Oblong-Riser’s strengths lie in consistent profitability, a solid win streak, and an ability to manage drawdowns effectively, as reflected by badges like Sniper and DCA Master. However, the low profit factor and moderate Sharpe Ratio highlight potential concerns regarding risk-adjusted returns and overall efficiency. Their semi-bot trading style may also introduce variability depending on market conditions. Overall, Oblong-Riser demonstrates a balanced, data-driven approach on Polymarket with room to optimize risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+194,958
DCA Master
avg 13.2 entries/market
Win Streak
91 wins in a row
Whale
$7,096,422
Consistent
79/82 days
High Roller
$21,183/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
💰 FINANCE#20$126,586Vol: $7,244,685
CRYPTO#796$46,855Vol: $4,957,188
SPORTS#1,725,597$-2,966Vol: $4,904,377
🏛️ POLITICS#1,995$22,135Vol: $3,297,969
📈 ECONOMICS#11,296$100Vol: $100,000
🎭 CULTURE#766,152$-101Vol: $80,301

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$194,958
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,380,604
Total Redeem
$2,250,926
Portfolio
$160,078
Predictions
1125
total markets
Trades
5433B / 2028S
Daily Volume
$21,183
Account Age
287d
since Sep 13, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$729
Vol: $37,449
Week
$206
Vol: $105,783
Month
$43,955
Vol: $2,375,376
All Time
$194,958
Vol: $21,380,604

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
176W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$309,730
Win Rate
67%
238W / 116L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$587
Avg Loss
$-29,794

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$26,675
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?$13,944
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?$9,026
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?$8,914
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?$5,308
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?$4,919
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?$4,378
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$3,945
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9?$3,063
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?$1,958

Top Losers

Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings$-203,605
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians$-178,742
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$-169,929
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April?$-154,142
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$-154,077
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders$-153,549
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$-151,931
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?$-151,831
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Ride$-150,394
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?$-140,299

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.472
Sortino
54.814
HHI
153
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.497
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
14.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
50.2
Very active
Markets / Day
2.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
56s
between trades
Avg Gap
18.8m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 56s — typical for humanSize CV 5.03 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness50 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
13.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
130 entries
<=2
195 entries
<=5
285 entries
<=10
327 entries
<=20
349 entries
<=50
383 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.2%
Mid (20-55c)12.9%
High (>55c)77.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45.1%

Up or Down$53
Paris$37
Lucknow$-275,671
Other$-3,040,808

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
245

Single bracket

<=1
189 brackets
<=2
214 brackets
<=3
224 brackets
<=4
230 brackets
<=5
232 brackets
<=8
239 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/25/2026, 10:52:04 PM1 trades$1250 min
1/26/2026, 12:54:06 AM1 trades$1860 min
1/26/2026, 1:24:22 AM1 trades$1980 min
1/26/2026, 1:43:24 AM1 trades$110 min
1/26/2026, 2:04:10 AM2 trades$141 min
1/26/2026, 2:25:30 AM1 trades$760 min
1/26/2026, 3:59:32 AM6 trades$333 min
1/26/2026, 4:25:18 AM2 trades$285 min
1/26/2026, 4:36:32 AM2 trades$214 min
1/26/2026, 6:19:32 AM2 trades$551 min
1/26/2026, 7:04:28 AM2 trades$2910 min
1/26/2026, 7:38:17 AM1 trades$10 min
1/26/2026, 7:48:05 AM1 trades$50 min
1/27/2026, 12:58:29 PM2 trades$151 min
1/27/2026, 1:18:33 PM1 trades$00 min
1/27/2026, 1:29:41 PM1 trades$10 min
1/28/2026, 3:25:23 AM1 trades$3950 min
1/28/2026, 5:23:49 AM1 trades$20 min
1/28/2026, 5:43:35 AM2 trades$890 min
1/28/2026, 5:52:15 AM1 trades$600 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
03-23
04-14
04-29
05-19
06-04
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 13.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event