Polydata

@Oddball-Maniac

#74145

0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae

243d· 188 markets · 21009 tradesVol: $246,901,9552026-06-27T17:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

45
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 2.27x15/15
HHI 49210/10
Profit Days 15%0/10

Summary

Oddball-Maniac is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding the global PnL rank of #741. Over 426 days, they have executed 21,009 trades across 188 markets, generating a net profit of $250,670.62 on a total volume near $247 million. Despite a significant trading footprint, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, reflecting recent losses, and their Sharpe Ratio of -0.56 indicates risk-adjusted returns have been negative.

This trader’s approach on Polymarket appears high-frequency and volume-driven with a low win rate of 14.4%, coupled with a low profit factor of 0.11, suggesting many small losses relative to gains. Oddball-Maniac trades a broad range of markets but shows minimal engagement in weather markets. Their sell percentage is low at 6%, implying a tendency to hold positions once entered. The smart score of 45/100 and bot score of 40/100 suggest a hybrid style blending manual and automated elements, possibly favoring short-term speculative bets rather than long-term value plays.

Oddball-Maniac’s main strength lies in their extensive market activity and ability to generate a large net PnL, reflecting some successful high-impact trades. However, the downward equity trend and negative Sharpe Ratio raise concerns about sustainability and risk management. The low win rate and profit factor further underline a risky trading style that may rely on occasional outsized wins rather than consistent profitability. These factors should be carefully considered by those analyzing their behavior on Polymarket.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+250,671
Diamond Hands
6% sell
Win Streak
15 wins in a row
Whale
$205,475,416
High Roller
$482,337/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#538$94,241Vol: $179,794,709
📢 MENTIONS#52$36,904Vol: $22,950,075
🎭 CULTURE#196$37,573Vol: $17,734,262
CRYPTO#961$39,994Vol: $9,757,972
💻 TECH#113$13,732Vol: $6,325,180
📈 ECONOMICS#342$18,692Vol: $4,774,437
💰 FINANCE#828$6,106Vol: $4,185,872
🌤️ WEATHER#748$2,301Vol: $1,008,220
SPORTS#83,164$187Vol: $261,248

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$250,671
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$246,901,955
Total Redeem
$83,301,699
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
188
total markets
Trades
19835B / 1174S
Daily Volume
$482,337
Account Age
243d
since Oct 27, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$10,155
Vol: $5,177,500
All Time
$250,671
Vol: $246,901,955

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
115W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$240,716
Win Rate
14%
27W / 161L
Profit Factor
0.11x
Avg Win
$501,226
Avg Loss
$-776,245

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$5,821,074
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$2,512,458
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1,364,837
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States oc$1,233,700
Trump kiss by May 31?$844,566
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social$799,200
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?$445,473
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$340,159
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?$66,016
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?$36,067

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-7,134,426
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-7,053,739
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?$-6,370,198
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 3$-6,169,932
US government shutdown Saturday?$-5,616,864
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-5,065,478
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-4,764,639
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?$-4,549,954
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-4,351,712
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$-4,344,639

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.561
Sortino
-0.578
HHI
492
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.542
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
36.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
90.2
Very active
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
46s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.0m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.98
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.3

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 46s — typical for humanSize CV 6.98 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness90 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
105.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
10 entries
<=2
13 entries
<=5
26 entries
<=10
47 entries
<=20
68 entries
<=50
111 entries
>50
77 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)0.2%
High (>55c)99.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 83%

Warsh$-52,724
Gaza$-88,068
Lebanon$-101,572
Tel Aviv$-995,453
Other$-110,204,605

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
123

Single bracket

<=1
92 brackets
<=2
110 brackets
<=3
117 brackets
<=4
120 brackets
<=5
120 brackets
<=8
121 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/27/2025, 5:18:51 PM1 trades$2,8900 min
10/27/2025, 8:07:21 PM6 trades$2,0003 min
10/27/2025, 11:55:09 PM3 trades$4,6102 min
10/28/2025, 1:47:23 AM5 trades$7566 min
10/28/2025, 2:02:39 AM2 trades$363 min
10/28/2025, 2:34:37 AM5 trades$2887 min
10/28/2025, 2:46:37 AM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 2:54:39 AM1 trades$1,5150 min
10/28/2025, 7:41:35 AM1 trades$16,1600 min
10/28/2025, 9:58:23 AM1 trades$1,8000 min
10/28/2025, 1:19:07 PM3 trades$1331 min
10/28/2025, 1:29:53 PM39 trades$29,3169 min
10/28/2025, 2:09:45 PM15 trades$8,4404 min
10/28/2025, 2:26:53 PM6 trades$7502 min
10/28/2025, 9:20:39 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/28/2025, 10:41:13 PM1 trades$40 min
10/28/2025, 10:55:51 PM2 trades$1,4964 min
10/29/2025, 12:49:39 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
10/29/2025, 4:14:27 AM1 trades$35,9830 min
10/29/2025, 4:49:55 AM1 trades$930 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-01
02-09
03-08
04-11
05-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.1% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 105.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event