OneShotKi11

@OneShotKi11

#3,068,35738

0x23c8e2534f90124712729dee72b856676e25522d

~17d· 34 markets · 278 tradesVol: $102,9892026-08-23 11:50:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

76% (26/34)20/20
0.49x (win $3,575 / loss $7,234)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.9690/15
Sortino -4.8330/10
$-0.0711 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 820 (34 markets)8.4/10
10/13 profitable days (77%)10/10
Max DD 565% of peak ($4,445 / $786)0/10

Badges

5
Sniper
Win rate 76%
DCA Master
Avg 8.2 entries/market
Whale
$51,478 invested
Consistent
10/13 profitable days
Win Streak
11 wins in a row

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,454,975$-76Vol: $34,083
🏛️ POLITICS#1,449,927$-39Vol: $27,045
🌤️ WEATHER#5,456$169Vol: $18,939
💰 FINANCE#663,026$-3,757Vol: $17,964
🎭 CULTURE#810,472$-393Vol: $4,959

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4,096
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$102,989
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
34
total markets
Trades
193B / 85S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~17d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
76%
26W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$-4,096
Win Rate
76%
26W / 8L
Profit Factor
0.49x
Avg Win
$138
Avg Loss
$-904

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,945 (0.7190268079496068% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?$2,324
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11?$334
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4?$287
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?$124
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13?$120
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on July 22?$54
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$37
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?$33
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 12?$31
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$27

Top Losers

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24?$-6,312
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 11?$-355
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$-278
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$-152
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?$-83
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?$-43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12?$-6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 12?$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.250
Sortino
-0.131
HHI
670
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.071
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.6%
Top-5 markets
47.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.18
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.9

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — normal for humanCV 1.18 — diverse sizes (human-like)2% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal23% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.18
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.5%
Mid (20-55c)1%
High (>55c)98.4%

Sessions

#12
3/3/2026, 9:17:35 PM1 trades$5,7250 min
3/3/2026, 8:14:29 PM16 trades$5,60111 min
3/15/2026, 9:28:49 PM1 trades$4,0680 min
7/24/2026, 6:05:55 PM20 trades$2,9752 min
3/4/2026, 11:23:45 AM7 trades$2,8015 min
3/2/2026, 9:58:03 PM5 trades$2,1556 min
7/24/2026, 2:17:55 PM11 trades$2,0580 min
3/5/2026, 7:56:19 AM2 trades$2,0000 min
3/8/2026, 1:39:57 PM2 trades$2,0000 min
3/15/2026, 1:39:03 PM1 trades$1,9380 min
3/10/2026, 3:37:45 PM6 trades$1,9148 min
3/4/2026, 1:48:15 PM7 trades$1,8003 min
3/4/2026, 7:48:23 AM3 trades$1,5002 min
3/16/2026, 9:15:39 PM2 trades$1,5001 min
3/19/2026, 9:10:39 AM2 trades$1,4670 min
3/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM2 trades$1,4003 min
3/7/2026, 8:15:43 AM5 trades$1,3322 min
7/24/2026, 5:19:15 PM38 trades$1,2577 min
3/5/2026, 1:48:17 PM6 trades$1,2405 min
3/10/2026, 3:27:47 PM7 trades$1,2323 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-02
03-04
03-06
03-10
03-17
07-22
07-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 136 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
5.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.18/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L0.5 / M1 / H98.4