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@Pessimistic-Harp

#2,53030

0x951bd740ef681d05891ca35440232488271d433e

72d· 14654 markets · 11726 tradesVol: $7,391,0622026-06-23T07:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.01x0/15
HHI 3610/10
Profit Days 2%0/10

Summary

Pessimistic-Harp is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 11,726 trades across 502 markets over 65 days. Ranked #2530 on the global PnL leaderboard, they have generated a net profit of $64,891.31 on a total traded volume exceeding $7.3 million. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 30/100, their portfolio shows an upward equity trend, though the current portfolio value is relatively low at $29.28.

The trader’s strategy appears highly automated, reflected in a strong Bot Score of 70/100 and a consistent contrarian style, as indicated by badges like Contrarian and Diamond Hands. Pessimistic-Harp tends to avoid selling positions, with a 0% sell rate, and does not engage in weather-related markets. Their win rate is relatively low at 28.2%, and the profit factor of 0.01 suggests frequent small losses or breakeven trades, consistent with a high-risk, high-frequency trading approach.

Pessimistic-Harp’s key strength lies in disciplined automated trading and contrarian positioning, which supports an overall upward equity trend despite challenging conditions. However, the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.85) and low profit factor highlight significant volatility and risk exposure. Traders following Pessimistic-Harp should be mindful of the potential for drawdowns and the reliance on automation in their Polymarket activities.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+64,891
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$191,658
High Roller
$2,949/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#545$64,891Vol: $7,391,062

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$64,891
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,391,062
Total Redeem
$6,704
Portfolio
$29
Predictions
14654
total markets
Trades
11726B / 0S
Daily Volume
$2,949
Account Age
72d
since Apr 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$272
Vol: $14,648
Week
$978
Vol: $151,279
Month
$20,336
Vol: $2,556,297
All Time
$64,891
Vol: $7,391,062

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
253W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$52,722
Win Rate
28%
141W / 359L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$14
Avg Loss
$-456

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$35
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$35
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$34

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$-1,949
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$-1,662
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$-1,610
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$-1,382
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$-1,379
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$-1,348
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$-1,339
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$-1,196
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$-1,194
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$-1,189

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.851
Sortino
-0.849
HHI
36
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.844
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
4.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
182.1
Very active
Markets / Day
7.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
8s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.8m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.75
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
33.9

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
53% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 1.75 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.13 — human randomness182 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
23.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
4 entries
<=2
11 entries
<=5
52 entries
<=10
216 entries
<=20
379 entries
<=50
469 entries
>50
33 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)19.9%
Mid (20-55c)39.2%
High (>55c)41%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52.4%

Other$-161,744

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
502

Single bracket

<=1
502 brackets
<=2
502 brackets
<=3
502 brackets
<=4
502 brackets
<=5
502 brackets
<=8
502 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/19/2026, 9:30:26 PM25 trades$5864 min
4/20/2026, 2:35:08 AM33 trades$4235 min
4/20/2026, 3:50:14 AM24 trades$8825 min
4/20/2026, 9:40:18 AM19 trades$5795 min
4/20/2026, 11:25:38 AM14 trades$4294 min
4/20/2026, 1:30:10 PM46 trades$1,08310 min
4/20/2026, 2:37:32 PM15 trades$6052 min
4/20/2026, 2:58:06 PM18 trades$6582 min
4/20/2026, 4:35:50 PM88 trades$1,8628 min
4/20/2026, 5:00:06 PM45 trades$1,0983 min
4/20/2026, 5:16:20 PM12 trades$2781 min
4/20/2026, 5:40:12 PM46 trades$9594 min
4/20/2026, 6:08:12 PM7 trades$4321 min
4/20/2026, 6:46:26 PM48 trades$1,0843 min
4/20/2026, 7:05:54 PM32 trades$1,1894 min
4/20/2026, 7:56:00 PM53 trades$1,1494 min
4/20/2026, 8:25:50 PM21 trades$1,0352 min
4/20/2026, 9:25:24 PM26 trades$1,1084 min
4/20/2026, 9:50:08 PM26 trades$7874 min
4/20/2026, 10:15:10 PM35 trades$1,0033 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-19
04-26
05-15
05-22
05-29
06-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 23.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event