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Pointed-Thorn

@Pointed-Thorn

#47269

0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e

590d· 2108 markets · 82336 tradesVol: $79,156,7732026-06-06T02:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 38%4/20
Profit Factor 1.71x11/15
Sharpe 0.55610/15
Sortino 10.15210/10
EV $+1.69910/10
HHI 17184/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Pointed-Thorn is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding rank #472 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over 1014 days, they have executed 82,336 trades across 607 markets, generating a net PnL of $340,637.08 from a total volume exceeding $79 million. Their portfolio value stands at nearly $50,000, supported by a solid Smart Score of 69/100, reflecting consistent performance and good market insight.

The trading style of Pointed-Thorn leans heavily toward short-term selling strategies, with 99% of their trades being sell orders. They exhibit a contrarian and hedging approach, balancing risk while capitalizing on market inefficiencies. Their high win rate of 94.4% and exceptional profit factor of 5176.84 suggest highly effective trade selection and timing. Pointed-Thorn’s activity does not involve weather markets, focusing instead on diverse Polymarket categories, employing a mix of manual and semi-automated bot trading techniques.

Strengths of Pointed-Thorn include a remarkably low maximum drawdown duration of zero days, indicating strong risk control and rapid recovery from losses. The upward equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 0.56 demonstrate steady growth with moderate volatility. However, the relatively moderate Sharpe ratio and heavy reliance on sell trades may pose risks in trending bullish markets. Overall, Pointed-Thorn’s disciplined approach and robust metrics make them a noteworthy Polymarket trader to watch.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+340,637
Lottery Player
79% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
92% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 9.2 entries/market
Hedger
avg 11.0 brackets/event
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Consistent
42/51 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
SPORTS#412$194,755Vol: $61,417,738
🎭 CULTURE#774,464$-242Vol: $6,834,551
🏛️ POLITICS#362$124,203Vol: $4,315,528
CRYPTO#11,010$4,062Vol: $2,745,158
📈 ECONOMICS#2,038$1,509Vol: $623,336
💻 TECH#1,760$603Vol: $314,152
💰 FINANCE#2,407$1,762Vol: $305,332
🌤️ WEATHER#263,311$-99Vol: $24,629
📢 MENTIONS#5,298$118Vol: $9,360

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$340,637
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$79,156,773
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$49,750
Predictions
2108
total markets
Trades
453B / 81883S
Daily Volume
$26
Account Age
590d
since Nov 13, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-24
Vol: $27,098
Week
$39,332
Vol: $6,904,025
Month
$39,332
Vol: $4,961,085
All Time
$340,637
Vol: $79,156,773

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
78%
67W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$1,425,905
Win Rate
94%
17W / 1L
Profit Factor
5176.84x
Avg Win
$18,879
Avg Loss
$-62

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $154,431 (48.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?$67,572
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$54,875
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?$31,984
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?$26,771
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$26,179
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$25,660
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidentia$24,969
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential electio$19,556
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$17,422
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$14,617

Top Losers

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$-62

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.556
Sortino
10.152
HHI
1718
Moderate
EV per $1
$1.699
Kelly %
94.3%
Half-Kelly
47.1%
Top-1 market
27.9%
Top-5 markets
80.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
385.9
Very active
Markets / Day
2.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.9m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 74s — typical for humanSize CV 3.94 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness386 trades/day — automation1060 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.2
Active DCA
<=1
19 entries
<=2
23 entries
<=5
33 entries
<=10
40 entries
<=20
43 entries
<=50
47 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)79%
Mid (20-55c)13%
High (>55c)7.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 95.6%

Other$279,882
Denver$31,984
Los Angeles$6,460
Seattle$1,569
Miami$981
Madrid$0
Chicago$0
Dallas$0
Atlanta$0
Toronto$0
San Francisco$0
Seoul$0
Houston$0
New York City$0
Austin$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
11
Events covered
55

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
18 brackets
<=2
21 brackets
<=3
22 brackets
<=4
23 brackets
<=5
26 brackets
<=8
31 brackets
>8
24 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/4/2025, 5:29:45 PM3 trades$332 min
11/4/2025, 5:38:57 PM14 trades$3711 min
11/4/2025, 5:55:39 PM3 trades$54 min
11/4/2025, 6:07:27 PM2 trades$25 min
11/4/2025, 6:18:29 PM1 trades$10 min
11/4/2025, 6:37:57 PM1 trades$00 min
11/4/2025, 7:00:05 PM1 trades$00 min
11/4/2025, 7:27:27 PM1 trades$10 min
11/4/2025, 7:37:53 PM1 trades$00 min
11/4/2025, 9:48:57 PM16 trades$165 min
11/4/2025, 10:00:11 PM1 trades$80 min
11/4/2025, 10:08:05 PM1 trades$00 min
11/4/2025, 10:22:19 PM2 trades$12 min
11/4/2025, 10:36:21 PM1 trades$10 min
11/4/2025, 10:48:15 PM9 trades$256 min
11/4/2025, 10:59:31 PM13 trades$333 min
11/4/2025, 11:28:23 PM1 trades$00 min
11/4/2025, 11:39:25 PM14 trades$224 min
11/4/2025, 11:56:03 PM1 trades$10 min
11/5/2025, 12:03:39 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
05-01
05-24
06-13
10-04
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
99.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.2/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 11 br/event