Polydata

@Poised-Hop

#2,914,13810

0x1e3b6822abfb39331b863eb729cdc251f607c850

110d· 2329 markets · 4655 tradesVol: $6,147,3722026-06-24T23:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 18%0/20
Profit Factor 0.47x0/15
HHI 1010/10
Profit Days 8%0/10
DD/Peak 3306%0/10

Summary

Poised-Hop is a relatively active trader on Polymarket with 4,655 trades across 1,483 markets over 78 days. Despite a high volume of $6.1 million traded, the trader holds a low global PnL rank at #2,914,138 and shows a significant net loss of approximately $169,000. Their portfolio value stands at just over $7,100, reflecting a downward equity trend and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.88, indicative of poor risk-adjusted returns.

The trader exhibits a contrarian style with a semi-automated approach, combining bot strategies with manual input as suggested by a bot score of 60/100. Poised-Hop prefers a low sell percentage of 5%, indicating a tendency to hold positions for extended periods (Diamond Hands badge), and a high win rate of 98.7%, though this may be influenced by small or frequent bets. Their engagement avoids weather markets entirely and they are classified as a high roller with substantial volume but a negative overall PnL.

Poised-Hop’s main strength lies in their persistence and high trade frequency, which could capitalize on market inefficiencies. However, the substantial net loss and negative Sharpe ratio highlight significant downside risk and poor portfolio management. The combination of high volume and poor profitability suggests overexposure or suboptimal timing, which may limit their long-term success on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Contrarian
68% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
103 wins in a row
Whale
$1,126,469
High Roller
$14,442/day

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,606,230$-168,137Vol: $5,899,463
SPORTS#1,689,225$-733Vol: $247,908

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-168,870
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,147,372
Total Redeem
$134,856
Portfolio
$7,110
Predictions
2329
total markets
Trades
4410B / 245S
Daily Volume
$14,442
Account Age
110d
since Mar 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1,697
Vol: $160,067
Week
$-7,499
Vol: $296,186
Month
$-16,134
Vol: $1,009,620
All Time
$-168,870
Vol: $6,147,372

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
18%
258W / 1143L events
Realized PnL
$428,472
Win Rate
99%
153W / 2L
Profit Factor
116.9x
Avg Win
$601
Avg Loss
$-393

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,900 (6.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$2,445
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1,827
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1,629
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1,532
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1,402
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1,346
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1,345
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1,321
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$1,298
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$1,292

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$-522
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)$-265

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.876
Sortino
-0.929
HHI
10
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.528
Kelly %
98.1%
Half-Kelly
49.1%
Top-1 market
0.3%
Top-5 markets
1.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
60.2
Very active
Markets / Day
19.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
23.3m
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
19.3

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 64s — typical for humanSize CV 0.92 — diverse, typical for human7% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness60 trades/day — mass trading19 markets/day — mass coverage1418 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3
Moderate DCA
<=1
471 entries
<=2
929 entries
<=5
1376 entries
<=10
1466 entries
<=20
1471 entries
<=50
1476 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)21%
Mid (20-55c)69.3%
High (>55c)9.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.7%

Other$91,167
Up or Down$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1443

Single bracket

<=1
1416 brackets
<=2
1432 brackets
<=3
1442 brackets
<=4
1442 brackets
<=5
1443 brackets
<=8
1443 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/8/2026, 1:36:55 PM2 trades$5593 min
4/8/2026, 2:40:33 PM1 trades$7760 min
4/8/2026, 2:51:17 PM4 trades$1,3590 min
4/8/2026, 3:10:13 PM3 trades$1,9450 min
4/9/2026, 1:30:33 AM2 trades$9670 min
4/9/2026, 1:45:37 AM3 trades$9690 min
4/9/2026, 1:51:01 AM3 trades$4720 min
4/9/2026, 2:06:25 AM3 trades$6970 min
4/9/2026, 2:16:39 AM2 trades$9600 min
4/9/2026, 2:26:05 AM3 trades$9680 min
4/9/2026, 2:45:59 AM1 trades$970 min
4/9/2026, 3:30:21 AM2 trades$9640 min
4/9/2026, 3:50:49 AM2 trades$4740 min
4/9/2026, 11:31:29 AM3 trades$1,9374 min
4/9/2026, 12:00:27 PM6 trades$1,8736 min
4/9/2026, 12:13:45 PM1 trades$1890 min
4/9/2026, 12:25:15 PM8 trades$2,0662 min
4/9/2026, 12:51:21 PM7 trades$2,4965 min
4/9/2026, 3:11:45 PM15 trades$2,9009 min
4/9/2026, 4:16:17 PM6 trades$2,0254 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-08
04-19
04-29
05-13
05-28
06-14
06-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event