Polydata
Quizzical-Hire

@Quizzical-Hire

#15219

0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882

878d· 12578 markets · 49371 tradesVol: $160,563,382 @AnjunPoly2026-06-27T11:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

19
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 23%0/20
Profit Factor 1.04x3/15
Sharpe 0.0200/15
Sortino 0.0350/10
EV $+0.0362/10
HHI 5110/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 91%0/10

Summary

Quizzical-Hire is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #152 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $969,941.51. Over 1462 days, they have executed 49,371 trades across 2,849 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $160 million. Despite a substantial profit and an upward equity trend, their Smart Score of 19/100 classifies them as a beginner, and their Sharpe Ratio of 0.02 suggests very low risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s style leans toward high activity with a semi-automated approach, reflected in a Bot Score of 55/100. Quizzical-Hire prefers a diversified portfolio, engaging in a wide range of markets without exposure to weather markets, and holds a 14% sell rate. Their win rate is strong at 73.1%, but the low profit factor of 0.25 indicates that winning trades may generate relatively small profits compared to losses. The combination of a lottery player and contrarian badges hints at a risk-tolerant, opportunistic strategy, possibly capitalizing on underpriced odds and employing dollar-cost averaging.

Strengths for Quizzical-Hire include consistent profitability and an ability to maintain an upward equity trend with minimal drawdown duration. However, the low Sharpe Ratio and modest profit factor signal potential risks in terms of efficiency and risk management. The beginner Smart Score suggests room for improving strategic sophistication, making it important to monitor how their semi-bot trading adapts to changing market conditions on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+969,942
Lottery Player
37% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
72% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 15.0 entries/market
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$10,799,436
High Roller
$7,387/day

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,217$46,082Vol: $68,261,744
🏛️ POLITICS#335$150,534Vol: $21,237,932
CRYPTO#159$170,738Vol: $14,197,946
🎭 CULTURE#46$116,238Vol: $9,896,581
💰 FINANCE#96$37,288Vol: $5,786,961
📈 ECONOMICS#311$20,994Vol: $3,829,257
💻 TECH#25$38,935Vol: $1,656,438
📢 MENTIONS#129$15,365Vol: $1,195,825
🌤️ WEATHER#1,700$818Vol: $344,315

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$969,942
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$160,563,382
Total Redeem
$583,208
Portfolio
$1,114,680
Predictions
12578
total markets
Trades
42389B / 6982S
Daily Volume
$7,387
Account Age
878d
since Feb 1, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-4,893
Vol: $118,708
Week
$-45,288
Vol: $1,682,934
Month
$-111,771
Vol: $10,734,458
All Time
$969,942
Vol: $160,563,382

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
492W / 1592L events
Realized PnL
$5,146,408
Win Rate
73%
57W / 20L
Profit Factor
0.25x
Avg Win
$3,988
Avg Loss
$-45,797

Top Winners

England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5$29,795
Harry Kane: 1+ goals$28,666
Will England win on 2026-06-23?$18,666
Games Total: O/U 3.5$16,666
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?$16,042
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals$12,635
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres$11,778
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?$10,400
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?$10,150
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Euro$9,303

Top Losers

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$-344,286
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$-160,925
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03?$-129,993
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-54,544
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$-53,249
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19?$-43,584
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?$-42,436
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29?$-25,499
Will France win on 2026-06-26?$-23,944
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?$-22,000

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.020
Sortino
0.035
HHI
51
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.036
Kelly %
29.4%
Half-Kelly
14.7%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
10.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
92.1
Very active
Markets / Day
5.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
52s
between trades
Avg Gap
15.4m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 52s — typical for humanSize CV 5.58 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness92 trades/day — mass trading3311 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15
Heavy DCA
<=1
805 entries
<=2
1154 entries
<=5
1719 entries
<=10
2096 entries
<=20
2370 entries
<=50
2623 entries
>50
198 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)36.8%
Mid (20-55c)39.5%
High (>55c)23.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 16.4%

Atlanta$11,778
London$9,160
Your Dragon$0
Spacey$0
Madrid$0
Singapore$0
ETF Flows$0
Newsom$0
Netanyahu$0
Toronto$0
Houston$0
New York City$0
Bieber$0
Disclosure Bill$0
Miami$0
Seattle$0
Paris$0
Corpus Christi$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
1911

Single bracket

<=1
1494 brackets
<=2
1723 brackets
<=3
1803 brackets
<=4
1844 brackets
<=5
1874 brackets
<=8
1900 brackets
>8
11 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/7/2025, 7:17:21 AM1 trades$50 min
1/7/2025, 2:10:30 PM1 trades$1960 min
1/7/2025, 2:17:42 PM1 trades$1750 min
1/7/2025, 6:00:38 PM1 trades$1,0110 min
1/7/2025, 8:40:54 PM1 trades$2000 min
1/8/2025, 12:12:11 AM1 trades$1980 min
1/8/2025, 1:56:41 AM1 trades$2060 min
1/8/2025, 2:32:25 AM1 trades$1980 min
1/8/2025, 4:57:05 AM2 trades$94 min
1/8/2025, 5:54:02 AM7 trades$343 min
1/9/2025, 11:41:38 PM1 trades$00 min
1/10/2025, 3:13:31 AM1 trades$10 min
1/10/2025, 12:11:39 PM1 trades$10 min
1/10/2025, 12:59:13 PM1 trades$50 min
1/10/2025, 3:58:10 PM1 trades$20 min
1/10/2025, 4:22:40 PM1 trades$390 min
1/11/2025, 3:58:59 PM1 trades$20 min
1/12/2025, 12:25:31 PM1 trades$70 min
1/12/2025, 9:06:33 PM1 trades$1150 min
1/15/2025, 10:50:36 PM1 trades$890 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
08-18
11-04
01-15
03-19
05-24
06-28
10-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event