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@Reckless-Derivation

#1,44999

0x246be8a4e3805e318801b79ad1ee1268d5fbfb5b

118d· 395 markets · 1383 tradesVol: $5,221,6562026-07-01T07:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

99
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 10.03x15/15
Sharpe 0.75314/15
Sortino 1.94110/10
EV $+0.20010/10
HHI 7110/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Reckless-Derivation is a highly active and successful trader on Polymarket, ranked #1449 globally by net profit. Over 107 days, they executed 1,383 trades across 370 markets, generating a net PnL of $121,563.75 on a total volume exceeding $5.2 million. Their elite Smart Score of 99/100 highlights exceptional trading skill, supported by a very high win rate of 96.6% and a profit factor above 10.

The trading style of Reckless-Derivation appears focused on consistent, high-probability setups rather than speculative bets. Their low sell percentage of 18% and zero exposure to weather markets suggest a selective approach favoring markets with clearer outcomes. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.75 indicates moderate risk-taking balanced with steady returns. Their activity pattern does not reveal prolonged drawdowns, implying timely exits and disciplined risk management.

Reckless-Derivation’s key strengths include outstanding consistency and profitability, demonstrated by badges like Sniper and Win Streak. Their high Smart Score and profit factor further confirm an edge in market prediction. However, the flat equity trend and zero portfolio value may indicate full realization of gains without current open positions, which could pose risks if market conditions shift. Overall, Reckless-Derivation’s performance on Polymarket reflects a robust, methodical strategy with strong execution but limited exposure to volatile or emerging markets.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+121,564
Win Streak
56 wins in a row
Whale
$2,175,477
Consistent
45/50 days
High Roller
$20,332/day
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

2
SPORTS#595$124,840Vol: $3,015,357
CRYPTO#1,610,531$-5,843Vol: $522,893

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$121,564
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,221,656
Total Redeem
$556,637
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
395
total markets
Trades
1129B / 254S
Daily Volume
$20,332
Account Age
118d
since Mar 11, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
232W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$427,323
Win Rate
97%
285W / 10L
Profit Factor
10.03x
Avg Win
$1,532
Avg Loss
$-4,355

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $62,746 (16% of PnL)

Top Winners

Pistons vs. 76ers$24,739
San Luis Potosi: Facundo Mena vs Tristan Schoolkate$19,907
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini$18,100
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL B$10,338
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Xinyu Wang vs Ha$9,039
Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs August Holmgren$7,464
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff$6,610
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner$6,166
Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic$6,114
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic$5,910

Top Losers

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev$-15,576
Mexico City: Nicolas Mejia vs Vladyslav Orlov$-8,793
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$-4,815
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$-3,873
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda$-3,156
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-2,749
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$-2,423
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playof$-1,595
Blackhawks vs. Sharks$-408
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-162

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.753
Sortino
1.941
HHI
71
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.200
Kelly %
89.9%
Half-Kelly
45.0%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.9
Active
Markets / Day
3.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
41.3m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.45
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 158s — typical for humanSize CV 2.45 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.24 — human randomness13 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
279 entries
<=2
321 entries
<=5
333 entries
<=10
345 entries
<=20
355 entries
<=50
368 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.1%
Mid (20-55c)11%
High (>55c)85.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 62.7%

Other$340,244
Miami$47,279
Seoul$3,357
Madrid$2,239

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
344

Single bracket

<=1
324 brackets
<=2
339 brackets
<=3
343 brackets
<=4
344 brackets
<=5
344 brackets
<=8
344 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/11/2026, 4:38:33 AM1 trades$3,0090 min
3/11/2026, 4:45:39 AM2 trades$7,1302 min
3/11/2026, 5:26:55 AM5 trades$4,4254 min
3/11/2026, 5:38:51 AM2 trades$4,1414 min
3/11/2026, 5:54:21 AM2 trades$3900 min
3/11/2026, 6:00:41 AM1 trades$1970 min
3/11/2026, 6:11:37 AM1 trades$9940 min
3/11/2026, 7:24:45 AM2 trades$5930 min
3/11/2026, 7:41:45 AM2 trades$5,5592 min
3/11/2026, 7:54:39 AM1 trades$7370 min
3/11/2026, 8:28:15 AM1 trades$1,3000 min
3/11/2026, 9:23:35 AM1 trades$1,7800 min
3/11/2026, 9:35:03 AM1 trades$970 min
3/11/2026, 10:39:09 AM1 trades$2,2780 min
3/11/2026, 10:52:39 AM1 trades$2,5100 min
3/11/2026, 1:47:45 PM1 trades$2,4930 min
3/11/2026, 2:02:07 PM1 trades$2,8680 min
3/11/2026, 3:06:41 PM2 trades$3,6180 min
3/11/2026, 3:29:07 PM1 trades$9940 min
3/11/2026, 4:00:01 PM2 trades$6965 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-11
03-19
03-28
04-06
04-14
05-01
06-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
18.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event