RogerFed

@RogerFed

#3,065,45329

0xe9582ac5e2d22a771ed84adc12c8df30a8b166b7

~136d· 160 markets · 5898 tradesVol: $562,2472026-08-04 19:45:31
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

29
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

60% (81/135)15/20
0.16x (win $24,268 / loss $151,897)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.6490/15
Sortino -2.6370/10
$-0.4078 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 955 (135 markets)7.7/10
37/67 profitable days (55%)6.3/10
Max DD 18620% of peak ($135,503 / $728)0/10

Badges

5
Sniper
Win rate 60%
DCA Master
Avg 43.4 entries/market
Whale
$313,004 invested
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,639,461$-15,727Vol: $507,001
📈 ECONOMICS#670,375$-237Vol: $31,261
SPORTS#1,760,880$-262Vol: $8,499
💰 FINANCE#652,950$-804Vol: $7,688
🎭 CULTURE#54,607$16Vol: $3,781
CRYPTO#1,468,107$-100Vol: $2,621
📢 MENTIONS#161,155$-76Vol: $1,397

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-17,190
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$562,247
Total Redeem
$233
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
160
total markets
Trades
3392B / 2506S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~136d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,138
Vol: $3,467
Week
$-808
Vol: $8,637
Month
$-855
Vol: $12,100
All Time
$-17,190
Vol: $562,247

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
60%
81W / 53L events
Realized PnL
$-17,190
Win Rate
60%
81W / 53L
Profit Factor
0.16x
Avg Win
$300
Avg Loss
$-3,165

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15,224 (0.8856346064126713% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?$10,518
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?$2,602
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$2,104
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1,172
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1,023
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$1,011
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$844
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?$585
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$545
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$409

Top Losers

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?$-80,199
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?$-31,452
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?$-13,654
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$-5,951
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-5,570
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-5,520
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-1,257
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-1,243
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$-1,000
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$-673

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.138
Sortino
-0.092
HHI
1114
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.429
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
28.6%
Top-5 markets
57.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
49.1m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
12.9

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 243s — normal for humanCV 2.20 — diverse sizes (human-like)16% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock8 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal56% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
43.42
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.9%
Mid (20-55c)19.9%
High (>55c)76.2%

Sessions

#12
6/7/2026, 1:06:45 PM50 trades$14,3349 min
7/28/2026, 10:09:26 PM17 trades$7,9127 min
3/26/2026, 12:46:07 PM2 trades$7,1050 min
5/25/2026, 12:20:03 PM60 trades$5,02621 min
5/28/2026, 7:43:56 PM6 trades$4,2468 min
5/4/2026, 3:19:08 PM2 trades$4,1400 min
4/1/2026, 5:21:21 PM5 trades$3,9794 min
4/5/2026, 3:31:21 PM4 trades$3,9650 min
5/16/2026, 3:22:48 PM17 trades$3,8764 min
5/5/2026, 11:55:08 PM24 trades$3,74515 min
6/10/2026, 12:19:45 PM31 trades$3,58414 min
5/4/2026, 3:25:34 PM3 trades$3,2430 min
7/20/2026, 1:26:49 PM21 trades$3,17710 min
5/6/2026, 11:41:54 AM3 trades$3,0610 min
4/6/2026, 6:34:13 PM15 trades$2,9794 min
4/27/2026, 2:45:24 AM3 trades$2,7450 min
7/24/2026, 2:07:30 AM12 trades$2,7036 min
6/15/2026, 6:27:10 PM13 trades$2,6820 min
4/12/2026, 1:00:03 PM22 trades$2,4686 min
6/14/2026, 1:02:04 PM11 trades$2,4654 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-02
04-03
05-02
06-03
06-16
06-29
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 81 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 43.42/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L3.9 / M19.9 / H76.2