@SamAlterman

#3,148,58724

0x856f3a22368a9e33aee5f45cbc11a66d4d5d2f64

~33d· 95 markets · 396 tradesVol: $2,552,4432026-09-24 12:17:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

60% (42/70)15/20
0.51x (win $526 / loss $1,036)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.0580/15
Sortino -5.0410/10
$-0.0217 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 946 (70 markets)7.8/10
7/19 profitable days (37%)1.7/10
Max DD 627% of peak ($607 / $97)0/10

Badges

2
Sniper
Win rate 60%
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

8
📈 ECONOMICS#698,752$-12,211Vol: $2,530,634
₿ CRYPTO#1,616,695$-421Vol: $15,690
🏛️ POLITICS#1,210,691$-7Vol: $3,795
💻 TECH#258,089$-86Vol: $1,829
💰 FINANCE#631,651$-66Vol: $317
🎭 CULTURE#44,700$24Vol: $132
⚽ SPORTS#363,166$3Vol: $23
🌤️ WEATHER#0$0Vol: $22

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-12,764
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,552,443
Total Redeem
$326
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
95
total markets
Trades
131B / 265S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~33d

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $0
Week
$-8
Vol: $0
Month
$-8,798
Vol: $2,193,986
All Time
$-12,764
Vol: $2,552,443

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
60%
42W / 28L events
Realized PnL
$-8,516
Win Rate
60%
42W / 28L
Profit Factor
0.51x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-40

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $111 (0.013050544144516514% of PnL)

Top Winners

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?$44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$34
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?$33
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?$31
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$30
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?$28
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?$27
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$24
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$21

Top Losers

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$-422
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?$-80
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-60
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?$-40
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?$-20
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-20
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?$-20
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?$-20
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?$-20
Kristi Noem out by March 31?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.258
Sortino
-0.215
HHI
4
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.235
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.5%
Top-5 markets
3.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
12/24
Extended
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.7

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 208s — normal for humanCV 3.37 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern12/24 hours — normal schedule2 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal10% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.3%
Mid (20-55c)21.4%
High (>55c)63.4%

Sessions

#12
8/12/2026, 11:53:01 AM47 trades$96,7043 min
9/5/2026, 9:43:27 AM92 trades$68,2582 min
8/12/2026, 12:01:36 PM7 trades$14,2610 min
8/5/2026, 12:38:15 PM9 trades$10,4411 min
8/19/2026, 1:20:04 PM10 trades$9,5811 min
8/11/2026, 11:34:57 AM45 trades$6,0271 min
8/24/2026, 1:42:48 PM2 trades$2,8510 min
7/31/2026, 4:21:21 PM55 trades$2,6517 min
7/18/2026, 4:41:13 AM7 trades$5720 min
3/2/2026, 3:48:57 PM8 trades$16016 min
7/30/2026, 12:38:12 PM2 trades$1560 min
7/21/2026, 5:21:30 AM7 trades$1430 min
1/20/2026, 2:38:24 PM7 trades$14021 min
3/1/2026, 9:26:47 AM7 trades$14018 min
7/24/2026, 3:15:46 PM2 trades$1170 min
8/2/2026, 2:38:12 PM2 trades$1050 min
1/19/2026, 3:58:38 PM5 trades$1009 min
1/21/2026, 3:13:50 PM5 trades$10014 min
1/21/2026, 3:39:54 PM5 trades$10012 min
1/28/2026, 1:40:23 PM5 trades$10012 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-19
01-22
01-28
02-04
03-02
04-13
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 142 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
66.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L15.3 / M21.4 / H63.4