Polydata
Scary-Spruce

@Scary-Spruce

#3,82886

0x4295bbc607cd1713525f73654b19e65c71d9d464

202d· 134 markets · 156 tradesVol: $105,3362026-06-27T10:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 24.72x15/15
Sharpe 0.3947/15
Sortino 0.8729/10
EV $+1438.43610/10
HHI 15015/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Scary-Spruce is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 156 trades spanning 377 days and a total volume of $105,336. Ranked #3828 on the global PnL leaderboard, they have achieved an impressive net profit of $41,317.98. Their elite Smart Score of 86/100 reflects strong analytical skills, and a 99.2% win rate paired with a profit factor of 24.89 indicates highly effective trading performance over a diverse set of 134 markets.

The trading style of Scary-Spruce leans toward low risk and precision, as evidenced by their high win rate and relatively low sell percentage of 14%. They show a preference for weather markets, which make up 10% of their trades, and their manual trading approach is confirmed by a low bot score of 10/100. Their Sharpe Ratio of 0.39 suggests modest risk-adjusted returns, while the zero-day max drawdown duration indicates excellent capital preservation and timing discipline.

Scary-Spruce’s strengths lie in consistent profitability, risk management, and a strong win streak, supported by badges like Sniper and Cool Head. However, their flat equity trend and low portfolio value of $17.03 may signal limited capital deployment or cautious scaling. While their performance on Polymarket is notable, the relatively low Sharpe Ratio highlights potential vulnerability to volatility in longer-term scenarios.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+41,318
Win Streak
124 wins in a row
Consistent
37/39 days
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

7
SPORTS#1,630$32,118Vol: $71,256
🎭 CULTURE#1,148$6,714Vol: $16,422
🏛️ POLITICS#12,670$1,724Vol: $7,142
📢 MENTIONS#168,625$-1,730Vol: $4,380
💰 FINANCE#2,693$1,654Vol: $3,897
CRYPTO#1,049,412$-7Vol: $210
🌤️ WEATHER#60,715$1Vol: $139

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$41,318
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$105,336
Total Redeem
$374
Portfolio
$17
Predictions
134
total markets
Trades
135B / 21S
Daily Volume
$15
Account Age
202d
since Dec 8, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$41,318
Vol: $105,336

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
58W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$41,330
Win Rate
99%
131W / 1L
Profit Factor
24.89x
Avg Win
$329
Avg Loss
$-1,730

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $26,025 (63% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Kaitlyn Christian win the 2026 PPA: Newport Beach Open (Wome$11,677
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?$8,460
Pallacanestro Varese vs. Pallacanestro Brescia$5,887
Will Chappell Roan perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?$4,479
Will Catherine Parenteau / Meghan Dizon win the 2026 PPA: Sacrame$3,789
Will Lady Gaga perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?$2,160
Will the WNBA and WNBPA sign a new CBA by June 30, 2026?$1,780
Will Meta (META) close above $670 on January 28?$1,622
Games Total: O/U 2.5$720
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$676

Top Losers

Will "Sauna" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Ex$-1,730

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.394
Sortino
0.872
HHI
1501
Moderate
EV per $1
$1438.436
Kelly %
99.2%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
33.6%
Top-5 markets
66.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
13/24
Extended
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
4s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.7m
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.41
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
25
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.2

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
50% < 5s — fast clicker/botSize CV 4.41 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern13/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.47 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
133 entries
<=2
134 entries
<=5
134 entries
<=10
134 entries
<=20
134 entries
<=50
134 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.4%
Mid (20-55c)4.4%
High (>55c)85.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 57.7%

Other$41,329
Singapore$0
Shanghai$0
Seoul$0
Milan$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.2
Events covered
60

Moderate coverage

<=1
30 brackets
<=2
45 brackets
<=3
50 brackets
<=4
54 brackets
<=5
57 brackets
<=8
59 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/8/2025, 2:33:35 AM2 trades$9,4111 min
1/9/2026, 9:53:02 AM24 trades$16,78124 min
1/18/2026, 3:06:34 PM1 trades$100 min
1/21/2026, 11:37:46 AM1 trades$100 min
1/27/2026, 2:10:07 PM20 trades$2,1487 min
2/9/2026, 12:26:19 PM5 trades$1,28511 min
2/9/2026, 12:42:33 PM19 trades$6,3082 min
2/25/2026, 6:16:28 AM1 trades$130 min
3/6/2026, 3:02:25 PM6 trades$271 min
3/8/2026, 1:14:43 PM2 trades$1251 min
3/8/2026, 1:26:29 PM36 trades$11,9869 min
3/15/2026, 9:52:01 AM2 trades$110 min
3/29/2026, 7:51:34 AM1 trades$120 min
4/8/2026, 2:18:01 PM1 trades$240 min
4/14/2026, 2:36:07 PM4 trades$240 min
4/15/2026, 12:45:34 PM4 trades$1174 min
4/15/2026, 1:21:36 PM14 trades$3,9804 min
4/16/2026, 1:30:54 PM1 trades$170 min
4/20/2026, 12:38:02 AM1 trades$170 min
4/25/2026, 1:24:12 PM1 trades$170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-28
02-28
03-31
04-22
05-07
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
10.4% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.2 br/event