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@Shimmering-Male

#2,900,95388

0x4ec30a1c1d754913cc9b537cee9483655fb534a7

110d· 10827 markets · 3820 tradesVol: $3,989,2072026-06-23T09:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

88
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 48%9/20
Profit Factor 13.55x15/15
Sharpe 0.75114/15
Sortino 9.02910/10
EV $+13.62210/10
HHI 7110/10
Profit Days 71%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Shimmering-Male is an active Polymarket trader with a significant trading history, having completed 3,820 trades across 499 markets in 288 days. Despite a negative net PnL of approximately $24,000, their total volume is nearly $4 million, indicating high engagement. Ranked #2,900,953 globally, Shimmering-Male holds an elite Smart Score of 88/100, reflecting strong trading skill despite the losses. Their portfolio value is currently $28.91, and they maintain a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.75.

Shimmering-Male favors a contrarian and disciplined trading style, as suggested by badges like Contrarian and Diamond Hands, along with a low sell percentage of 4%. Their risk profile appears balanced, with a profit factor of 2.33 and a win rate of 63.7%, indicating consistent gains on winning trades. The trader uses dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies and maintains stable equity trends without extended drawdowns. The semi-bot score of 40/100 implies a mix of automated and manual trading approaches, with no involvement in weather markets.

The key strengths of Shimmering-Male lie in their disciplined, high-volume trading and strong win rate, supported by effective risk management. However, the substantial net loss and very low portfolio value raise concerns about capital preservation and overall profitability on Polymarket. Their flat equity trend suggests limited growth potential, and the semi-bot approach may introduce execution risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Contrarian
51% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
4% sell
DCA Master
avg 7.3 entries/market
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$88,515
Consistent
57/80 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

1
⚽ SPORTS#1,737,735$-13,766Vol: $721,694

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-23,997
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,989,207
Total Redeem
$71,902
Portfolio
$29
Predictions
10827
total markets
Trades
3660B / 160S
Daily Volume
$307
Account Age
110d
since Mar 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$71
Vol: $9,542
Month
$-2,921
Vol: $354,372
All Time
$-23,997
Vol: $3,989,207

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
46%
191W / 221L events
Realized PnL
$246,778
Win Rate
64%
128W / 73L
Profit Factor
2.33x
Avg Win
$115
Avg Loss
$-86

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,377 (28.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group$1,112
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner$702
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta$564
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner$557
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner$517
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou$460
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner$458
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner$445
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner$381
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner$371

Top Losers

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner$-371
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters L$-246
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner$-232
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla$-232
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Ma$-224
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag$-215
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters Londo$-211
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner$-203
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs$-202
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner$-191

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.751
Sortino
9.029
HHI
71
Diversified
EV per $1
$13.622
Kelly %
41.9%
Half-Kelly
20.9%
Top-1 market
2.8%
Top-5 markets
10.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
40.4
Active
Markets / Day
5.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
18.6m
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.2

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 61s — typical for humanSize CV 1.54 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.15 — human randomness40 trades/day — suspiciously high549 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.3
Active DCA
<=1
141 entries
<=2
218 entries
<=5
313 entries
<=10
394 entries
<=20
451 entries
<=50
494 entries
>50
5 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.7%
Mid (20-55c)48.3%
High (>55c)41%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.2%

Other$6,924
London$1,460
Houston$0
Lucknow$0
Wuhan$0
Madrid$0
Shanghai$0
Seattle$0
Atlanta$0
Paris$0
Dallas$0
New York City$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
314

Single bracket

<=1
196 brackets
<=2
253 brackets
<=3
309 brackets
<=4
313 brackets
<=5
314 brackets
<=8
314 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/20/2026, 5:42:19 AM6 trades$321 min
3/20/2026, 4:20:19 PM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 5:11:03 PM1 trades$170 min
3/21/2026, 9:55:39 AM1 trades$10 min
3/21/2026, 11:02:15 AM2 trades$180 min
3/21/2026, 12:31:31 PM1 trades$10 min
3/21/2026, 12:36:59 PM1 trades$290 min
3/21/2026, 12:50:39 PM1 trades$50 min
3/21/2026, 1:11:11 PM2 trades$280 min
3/21/2026, 1:51:53 PM1 trades$110 min
3/21/2026, 3:04:11 PM1 trades$20 min
3/22/2026, 5:00:57 AM1 trades$180 min
3/22/2026, 2:32:27 PM1 trades$10 min
3/22/2026, 5:37:21 PM1 trades$10 min
3/23/2026, 3:27:27 AM1 trades$10 min
5/5/2026, 4:56:16 PM2 trades$511 min
5/5/2026, 5:41:42 PM2 trades$4782 min
5/5/2026, 6:00:40 PM3 trades$71 min
5/5/2026, 6:22:08 PM1 trades$50 min
5/5/2026, 10:32:04 PM2 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-18
04-10
04-29
05-12
05-26
06-09
11-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event