Polydata

@Short-Convention

#3,17773

0x6a88c5ecd262e2c42e78bad8e6db7ab3c4e4b859

261d· 24676 markets · 8780 tradesVol: $26,391,7952026-06-24T23:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.01x0/15
Sharpe 0.69113/15
Sortino 582518.81610/10
HHI 14410/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Short-Convention is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3177 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $50,729.01. Over 427 days, they have completed 8,780 trades across 1,639 markets, accumulating a total trading volume exceeding $26 million. Their portfolio value stands at $309,199.76, supported by a solid win rate of 86.3% and a Smart Score of 73, indicating very good trading acumen.

The trader demonstrates a consistent and measured trading style, favoring a broad range of markets without exposure to weather-related contracts. Short-Convention’s risk profile appears conservative, with a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.69 and a max drawdown duration of zero days, reflecting disciplined risk management and quick recovery. With a sell percentage of 27%, they tend to hold positions rather than frequently flipping them, suggesting a preference for timing entries carefully and capitalizing on sustained market movements.

Short-Convention’s key strengths lie in their high win rate, steady equity trend, and consistent profitability, which are valuable for navigating Polymarket’s dynamic environment. However, the low profit factor of 0.01 may indicate that while wins are frequent, individual trade profits are modest. Additionally, the Bot Score suggests human-driven trades, which may limit speed but enhance strategic decision-making. Overall, their approach balances volume and caution, though scaling profits may require adjusting risk-reward dynamics.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+50,729
Win Streak
1395 wins in a row
Whale
$4,980,763
Consistent
111/112 days
High Roller
$11,665/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,844$26,618Vol: $18,292,752
🏛️ POLITICS#2,616$15,671Vol: $3,306,120
CRYPTO#9,345$4,948Vol: $1,696,261
💰 FINANCE#632,999$-1,785Vol: $1,092,510
🎭 CULTURE#6,422$670Vol: $716,139
📈 ECONOMICS#7,679$190Vol: $206,163
💻 TECH#1,710$681Vol: $133,662
🌤️ WEATHER#6,420$102Vol: $104,551
📢 MENTIONS#2,857$334Vol: $53,987

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$50,729
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$26,391,795
Total Redeem
$127,218
Portfolio
$309,200
Predictions
24676
total markets
Trades
6427B / 2353S
Daily Volume
$11,665
Account Age
261d
since Oct 8, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$199
Vol: $88,349
Week
$539
Vol: $271,689
Month
$12,141
Vol: $2,850,627
All Time
$50,729
Vol: $26,391,795

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
217W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$65,197
Win Rate
86%
1403W / 223L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$24
Avg Loss
$-16,464

Top Winners

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$21,184
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$11,011
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$960
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$336
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?$290
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)$79
Will the Patek Index hit $104,000 (LOW) by April 30?$55
Miami Open: Emerson Jones vs Linda Fruhvirtova$51
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley$51
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals$10

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-148,813
Fortaleza CEIF vs. AD Pasto: O/U 2.5$-111,001
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?$-108,667
Miyazaki: August Holmgren vs Yuto Oki$-106,000
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$-86,912
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?$-84,915
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-80,648
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?$-79,322
BC Dubai vs. Valencia$-76,590
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx$-75,449

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.691
Sortino
inf
HHI
144
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.736
Kelly %
7.5%
Half-Kelly
3.7%
Top-1 market
6.6%
Top-5 markets
15.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
43.8
Active
Markets / Day
8.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
42s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.9m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.41
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.7

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 42s — typical for humanSize CV 4.41 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness44 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
1327 entries
<=2
1403 entries
<=5
1469 entries
<=10
1520 entries
<=20
1566 entries
<=50
1618 entries
>50
21 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.1%
Mid (20-55c)1.8%
High (>55c)97.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 60.5%

Gaza$290
Taipei$0
Denver$-3,247
Miami$-4,949
Milan$-14,175
Hong Kong$-16,897
Paris$-106,712
Madrid$-186,309
Other$-3,305,205

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.8
Events covered
578

Moderate coverage

<=1
296 brackets
<=2
390 brackets
<=3
435 brackets
<=4
473 brackets
<=5
502 brackets
<=8
535 brackets
>8
43 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/6/2025, 1:48:19 PM14 trades$5,0508 min
12/6/2025, 2:14:05 PM3 trades$9901 min
12/10/2025, 10:19:48 PM16 trades$5,86210 min
12/10/2025, 11:10:12 PM39 trades$15,93335 min
12/11/2025, 12:38:05 AM13 trades$2,54010 min
12/11/2025, 1:07:03 AM1 trades$4780 min
12/11/2025, 1:39:55 AM1 trades$590 min
12/11/2025, 1:46:33 AM2 trades$7042 min
12/11/2025, 1:56:11 AM2 trades$2830 min
12/11/2025, 2:22:43 AM1 trades$4500 min
12/11/2025, 2:28:13 AM1 trades$480 min
12/11/2025, 2:50:59 AM9 trades$2,8508 min
12/11/2025, 3:10:11 AM1 trades$4020 min
12/11/2025, 3:15:29 AM3 trades$2,0953 min
12/11/2025, 3:33:19 AM1 trades$1600 min
12/11/2025, 12:30:17 PM10 trades$1,70710 min
12/13/2025, 4:28:57 PM3 trades$1,1732 min
12/13/2025, 6:33:01 PM3 trades$7,0967 min
12/13/2025, 7:04:39 PM6 trades$6,4316 min
12/13/2025, 7:17:13 PM2 trades$4990 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-25
01-25
03-07
04-12
05-13
07-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.8 br/event