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Spirited-Motorcar

@Spirited-Motorcar

#1,59662

0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426

514d· 1361 markets · 6036 tradesVol: $2,334,4762026-06-20T07:31
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

62
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 6.15x15/15
EV $+1.56910/10
HHI 21810/10
Profit Days 56%7/10
DD/Peak 5635%0/10

Summary

Spirited-Motorcar is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1596 globally with a net PnL of $104,943.89 over 568 days and 6,036 trades. Their total trading volume exceeds $2.3 million across 368 markets, showing consistent engagement. Despite a moderate win rate of 51.7%, their overall portfolio value stands at $79,225.20 with an upward equity trend, reflecting steady growth.

The trader’s strategy appears diversified with a preference for numerous markets rather than concentrating on a few. Spirited-Motorcar’s risk profile is balanced but leans toward cautious trading, evidenced by a relatively low sell percentage of 24% and a profit factor of 0.28, which suggests limited profitability per dollar risked. Timing-wise, the lack of drawdown duration and a negative Sharpe ratio (-0.20) indicate periods of volatility or inconsistent returns. The presence of badges like Sniper and DCA Master implies a combination of precise entries and dollar-cost averaging tactics.

Strengths for Spirited-Motorcar include a strong trading volume and an upward equity trend, signaling resilience and adaptability in Polymarket’s dynamic environment. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe ratio highlight potential concerns regarding risk-adjusted returns and volatility management. Overall, Spirited-Motorcar demonstrates solid experience with room to optimize profitability and reduce drawdowns.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+104,944
DCA Master
avg 12.5 entries/market
Win Streak
29 wins in a row
Whale
$628,806
High Roller
$1,107/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,484$31,315Vol: $998,157
CRYPTO#1,111$35,335Vol: $473,713
💰 FINANCE#291$15,665Vol: $309,592
🎭 CULTURE#1,322$5,698Vol: $212,386
📈 ECONOMICS#1,220$3,383Vol: $153,967
💻 TECH#293$5,697Vol: $93,690
📢 MENTIONS#237$7,806Vol: $78,103
SPORTS#1,657,952$-587Vol: $3,686
🌤️ WEATHER#2,073$566Vol: $1,869

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$104,944
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,334,476
Total Redeem
$185,235
Portfolio
$79,225
Predictions
1361
total markets
Trades
4580B / 1456S
Daily Volume
$1,107
Account Age
514d
since Jan 29, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-51
Vol: $0
Week
$-495
Vol: $24,408
Month
$9,974
Vol: $210,991
All Time
$104,944
Vol: $2,334,476

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
202W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$135,567
Win Rate
52%
148W / 138L
Profit Factor
0.28x
Avg Win
$472
Avg Loss
$-1,819

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$14,032
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$8,727
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?$5,454
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$3,205
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?$2,202
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliam$1,958
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? $1,616
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?$1,547
Trump kiss by May 31?$1,491
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1,281

Top Losers

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?$-16,794
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$-12,455
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$-12,251
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-11,999
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$-9,627
US government shutdown Saturday?$-8,769
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$-7,893
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$-6,674
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?$-5,909
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$-5,624

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.198
Sortino
-0.145
HHI
218
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.569
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.8%
Top-5 markets
25.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.4
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 299s — typical for humanSize CV 4.30 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
64 entries
<=2
101 entries
<=5
174 entries
<=10
243 entries
<=20
314 entries
<=50
349 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)21%
Mid (20-55c)23.1%
High (>55c)55.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45.9%

Other$-181,065

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
225

Single bracket

<=1
164 brackets
<=2
191 brackets
<=3
205 brackets
<=4
213 brackets
<=5
219 brackets
<=8
224 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/24/2025, 2:49:53 PM1 trades$410 min
6/16/2025, 11:42:51 PM1 trades$1170 min
6/17/2025, 12:03:57 AM1 trades$40 min
6/17/2025, 12:33:59 AM1 trades$1070 min
6/21/2025, 11:49:34 AM1 trades$1080 min
6/22/2025, 12:03:16 PM1 trades$400 min
6/24/2025, 3:35:49 PM1 trades$3700 min
6/24/2025, 10:00:11 PM2 trades$63 min
6/24/2025, 10:29:41 PM1 trades$20 min
6/24/2025, 10:37:51 PM1 trades$210 min
6/24/2025, 11:14:27 PM1 trades$90 min
6/24/2025, 11:19:55 PM3 trades$82 min
6/26/2025, 7:10:28 PM1 trades$810 min
6/26/2025, 7:34:20 PM2 trades$374 min
6/26/2025, 8:45:46 PM1 trades$1140 min
6/29/2025, 8:29:13 PM1 trades$640 min
6/29/2025, 8:52:57 PM2 trades$112 min
6/29/2025, 9:03:25 PM1 trades$90 min
6/29/2025, 9:45:21 PM1 trades$1260 min
6/29/2025, 9:54:51 PM1 trades$120 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-30
03-23
04-14
05-02
05-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event