TheManInTheShadows

@TheManInTheShadows

#301,66527

0x58c916244e54af913cf0428e155d08f67b78a3d6

~41d· 83 markets · 234 tradesVol: $46,9652026-09-10 22:08:21
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

39% (31/80)4.4/20
1.05x (win $1,617 / loss $1,544)3.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.2414.5/15
Sortino 0.4074.1/10
$+0.0234 per $1 invested1.2/10
HHI 552 (80 markets)9.7/10
8/28 profitable days (29%)0/10
Max DD 90% of peak ($677 / $751)0/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+106
Lottery Player
62% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,577,131$-202Vol: $19,685
₿ CRYPTO#1,524,998$-116Vol: $13,266
🎭 CULTURE#6,991$631Vol: $9,075
⚽ SPORTS#1,708,176$-108Vol: $2,939
💰 FINANCE#591,434$-14Vol: $900
📢 MENTIONS#170,895$-117Vol: $843
💻 TECH#242,759$-15Vol: $257

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$59
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$46,965
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
83
total markets
Trades
151B / 83S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~41d

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$-21
Vol: $3,335
Month
$-21
Vol: $3,335
All Time
$59
Vol: $46,965

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
39%
31W / 49L events
Realized PnL
$106
Win Rate
39%
31W / 49L
Profit Factor
1.05x
Avg Win
$52
Avg Loss
$-32

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,347 (12.685916156382476% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27?$692
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 27?$416
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 27?$238
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?$44
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13?$39
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$32
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?$22
Will Kamala Harris say "black" 3 or more times during Oprah livestream?$15
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 19?$13
Red Wings vs. Bruins$11

Top Losers

Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 28?$-500
Will Trump say "Fire" or "Fired" at his press conference?$-123
Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18?$-100
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?$-100
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 28?$-100
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$-100
Will Hellen Obiri (KEN) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?$-78
Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?$-42
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18?$-40
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$-33

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.012
Sortino
0.019
HHI
481
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.024
Kelly %
14.2%
Half-Kelly
7.1%
Top-1 market
16%
Top-5 markets
35.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
46%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 156s — normal for humanCV 1.78 — diverse sizes (human-like)46% night trades — never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clock0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal35% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.38
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)62.3%
Mid (20-55c)19.2%
High (>55c)18.5%

Sessions

#12
10/27/2025, 12:16:37 AM4 trades$8283 min
9/26/2024, 1:03:49 PM1 trades$6870 min
9/8/2026, 12:00:07 AM45 trades$2664 min
8/4/2024, 1:28:07 PM3 trades$2361 min
10/27/2025, 10:45:07 AM2 trades$2040 min
10/28/2025, 7:07:15 AM2 trades$2000 min
10/28/2025, 8:23:05 AM1 trades$2000 min
10/28/2025, 11:35:39 AM1 trades$2000 min
10/25/2025, 4:31:13 AM2 trades$1942 min
11/3/2025, 6:12:41 AM2 trades$1901 min
8/6/2024, 8:58:50 AM2 trades$1880 min
10/26/2025, 11:12:43 AM5 trades$1683 min
10/14/2024, 1:44:46 AM13 trades$1655 min
10/19/2025, 6:55:59 PM2 trades$1610 min
12/13/2024, 10:46:24 AM2 trades$1593 min
11/19/2024, 1:04:00 AM3 trades$1441 min
11/5/2025, 12:51:47 AM6 trades$1423 min
8/15/2024, 12:39:00 PM2 trades$1323 min
10/19/2025, 8:22:05 PM14 trades$1273 min
10/12/2024, 1:44:37 AM1 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-06
09-24
11-19
04-14
10-19
10-28
11-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 156 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.38/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L62.3 / M19.2 / H18.5