Polydata

@Theo4

#186

0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839

584d· 14 markets · 4278 tradesVol: $43,013,2592026-05-18T18:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 82%20/20
Profit Factor 5339.18x15/15
Sharpe 0.51410/15
Sortino 5513483437.90810/10
EV $+3.44810/10
HHI 22031/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Theo4 is the top-ranked trader on Polymarket’s global PnL leaderboard, boasting an impressive net profit of over $22 million from 4,278 trades across 14 markets. With a high Smart Score of 86 and an elite status, Theo4 demonstrates exceptional trading performance within just 57 days of activity. Their total trading volume surpasses $43 million, reflecting a highly active and engaged trading style.

Theo4’s strategy appears focused on high-confidence, contrarian positions, as indicated by badges like Sniper and Contrarian. Their win rate of 85.7% and an extraordinary profit factor of 851.92 suggest a highly selective approach with disciplined risk management. Notably, they maintain a 0% sell percentage and a Bot Score of 50, indicating a hybrid method combining automated and manual trading. Their preference for a limited number of markets suggests deep specialization rather than broad diversification.

The strengths of Theo4 include exceptional profitability and consistency, with no recorded drawdown duration and an elite risk-adjusted performance. However, the Sharpe ratio of 0.51 points to moderate volatility, and a portfolio value of zero may imply full profit withdrawal or redeployment outside Polymarket. While the semi-bot approach enhances execution speed, reliance on limited markets carries concentration risk. Overall, Theo4 exemplifies a dominant yet focused trading style on Polymarket.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 82%
Profitable
PnL $+22,053,934
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 305.6 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$9,436,263
Consistent
3/4 days
High Roller
$165,548/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

2
🏛️ POLITICS#1$22,053,953Vol: $43,012,711
🎭 CULTURE#689,286$-19Vol: $548

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$22,053,934
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,013,259
Total Redeem
$41,281,118
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
4278B / 0S
Daily Volume
$165,548
Account Age
584d
since Oct 14, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
8W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$22,053,934
Win Rate
86%
12W / 2L
Profit Factor
851.92x
Avg Win
$2,714,376
Avg Loss
$-19,117

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $30,803,310 (94.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$13,384,367
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$10,556,307
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$6,862,636
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $1,171,795
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$413,401
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$84,340
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$43,170
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$31,380
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$17,258
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$5,612

Top Losers

Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$-38,215
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.514
Sortino
inf
HHI
2203
Moderate
EV per $1
$3.448
Kelly %
81.6%
Half-Kelly
40.8%
Top-1 market
29.9%
Top-5 markets
95.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
143.9
Very active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.3m
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 6.49 — diverse, typical for human9% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.15 — human randomness144 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
305.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
0 entries
<=5
1 entries
<=10
2 entries
<=20
3 entries
<=50
7 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)59.9%
High (>55c)40%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.2%

Other$32,534,281

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
9

Single bracket

<=1
4 brackets
<=2
9 brackets
<=3
9 brackets
<=4
9 brackets
<=5
9 brackets
<=8
9 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/14/2024, 3:32:52 PM7 trades$4,5601 min
10/14/2024, 3:47:04 PM6 trades$9,7180 min
10/14/2024, 4:06:42 PM1 trades$20 min
10/14/2024, 4:32:00 PM1 trades$5,8240 min
10/14/2024, 4:39:28 PM7 trades$25217 min
10/14/2024, 5:03:09 PM3 trades$138 min
10/14/2024, 5:37:50 PM3 trades$26,4070 min
10/14/2024, 5:53:44 PM2 trades$1091 min
10/14/2024, 6:01:40 PM15 trades$13,8013 min
10/14/2024, 6:11:35 PM1 trades$150 min
10/14/2024, 6:19:57 PM13 trades$66,2902 min
10/14/2024, 6:32:33 PM7 trades$1,6075 min
10/14/2024, 6:45:12 PM13 trades$16,7854 min
10/14/2024, 6:56:39 PM1 trades$10 min
10/14/2024, 7:05:03 PM1 trades$2,5880 min
10/14/2024, 7:14:05 PM1 trades$40 min
10/14/2024, 7:51:17 PM1 trades$6010 min
10/14/2024, 8:03:15 PM1 trades$140 min
10/14/2024, 8:10:31 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/14/2024, 8:33:59 PM1 trades$360 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-04
11-05
11-08
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 305.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event