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@Theo4

#186

0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839

629d· 14 markets · 4272 tradesVol: $43,013,2592026-07-01T20:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 82%20/20
Profit Factor 5339.18x15/15
Sharpe 0.51410/15
Sortino 5513483437.90810/10
EV $+3.47810/10
HHI 22211/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Theo4 is the top-ranked trader on Polymarket’s global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $22 million from more than 4,200 trades across 14 markets. Over 57 days of activity, Theo4 has maintained an elite Smart Score of 86 out of 100, reflecting consistent high performance. Despite a substantial trading volume exceeding $43 million, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating a fully realized profit position.

Theo4 demonstrates a highly selective and high-confidence trading style, reflected in a remarkable 92.9% win rate and an extraordinary profit factor of 853.99. Their approach is semi-automated, balancing bot-driven and manual trades, which suggests a strategic use of technology combined with discretionary decisions. Theo4 refrains from selling positions and avoids weather markets, focusing instead on a contrarian style supported by badges like Sniper and DCA Master. The zero max drawdown duration indicates tight risk control with no significant losing streaks.

The strengths of Theo4 lie in their exceptional accuracy, disciplined risk management, and ability to capitalize on Polymarket’s diverse markets with a concentrated portfolio. However, the reliance on semi-bot trading raises questions about adaptability in highly volatile conditions. Additionally, the absence of open positions could mean limited exposure to new opportunities in the short term. Overall, Theo4’s performance sets a high benchmark but monitoring changes in strategy remains important.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 82%
Profitable
PnL $+22,053,934
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 305.1 entries/market
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$9,373,158
Consistent
3/4 days
High Roller
$164,441/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

2
🏛️ POLITICS#1$22,053,953Vol: $43,012,711
🎭 CULTURE#709,557$-19Vol: $548

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$22,053,934
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,013,259
Total Redeem
$41,281,118
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
4272B / 0S
Daily Volume
$164,441
Account Age
629d
since Oct 14, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
8W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$22,053,934
Win Rate
93%
13W / 1L
Profit Factor
853.99x
Avg Win
$2,510,431
Avg Loss
$-38,215

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $30,808,527 (94.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$13,384,367
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$10,571,690
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$6,852,469
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $1,171,978
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$442,291
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$84,340
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$71,746
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$31,380
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$17,258
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$5,612

Top Losers

Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$-38,215

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.514
Sortino
inf
HHI
2221
Moderate
EV per $1
$3.478
Kelly %
90.8%
Half-Kelly
45.4%
Top-1 market
30.2%
Top-5 markets
95.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
143.7
Very active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.9m
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.53
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 6.53 — diverse, typical for human9% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.15 — human randomness144 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
305.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
0 entries
<=5
2 entries
<=10
2 entries
<=20
3 entries
<=50
7 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)59.9%
High (>55c)39.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.3%

Other$32,597,386

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
9

Single bracket

<=1
4 brackets
<=2
9 brackets
<=3
9 brackets
<=4
9 brackets
<=5
9 brackets
<=8
9 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/14/2024, 3:32:52 PM7 trades$4,5601 min
10/14/2024, 3:47:04 PM6 trades$9,7180 min
10/14/2024, 4:06:42 PM1 trades$20 min
10/14/2024, 4:32:00 PM1 trades$5,8240 min
10/14/2024, 4:39:28 PM7 trades$25217 min
10/14/2024, 5:03:09 PM3 trades$138 min
10/14/2024, 5:37:50 PM3 trades$26,4070 min
10/14/2024, 5:53:44 PM2 trades$1091 min
10/14/2024, 6:01:40 PM15 trades$13,8013 min
10/14/2024, 6:11:35 PM1 trades$150 min
10/14/2024, 6:19:57 PM13 trades$66,2902 min
10/14/2024, 6:32:33 PM7 trades$1,6075 min
10/14/2024, 6:45:12 PM13 trades$16,7854 min
10/14/2024, 6:56:39 PM1 trades$10 min
10/14/2024, 7:05:03 PM1 trades$2,5880 min
10/14/2024, 7:14:05 PM1 trades$40 min
10/14/2024, 7:51:17 PM1 trades$6010 min
10/14/2024, 8:03:15 PM1 trades$140 min
10/14/2024, 8:10:31 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/14/2024, 8:33:59 PM1 trades$360 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-04
11-05
11-08
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 305.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event