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@Waterlogged-Column

#3,18830

0x2f2b6e3176e4914ccc79111dd9c704904d390f9a

165d· 3707 markets · 4078 tradesVol: $1,920,6182026-06-26T21:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 0.32x0/15
HHI 1510/10
Profit Days 31%0/10

Summary

Waterlogged-Column is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3188 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 160 days, the trader has executed 4,078 trades across 2,058 markets, generating a net profit of $50,758.04 on a total volume exceeding $1.9 million. Despite this sizable activity, the smart score sits at 30/100, reflecting below-average efficiency, while the portfolio value is $5,664.92 with an overall upward equity trend.

The trading style of Waterlogged-Column appears to favor a high number of trades with a moderate win rate of 55.5%, indicating a balanced success in market predictions. The absence of weather markets and a sell percentage of zero suggest a focus on holding positions rather than quick flips. The risk profile leans toward a contrarian, semi-automated approach, as indicated by a bot score of 40/100 and badges like Contrarian and Diamond Hands. However, the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.38) and low profit factor (0.32) point to volatility and risk exposure in their timing and market selection.

Waterlogged-Column’s key strengths include consistent upward equity growth and a solid win streak that supports their profitable status on Polymarket. The trader’s sniper badge implies precision in market entry, while the zero max drawdown duration suggests effective risk containment. Conversely, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe ratio signal that gains may come with substantial risk, which could be a concern for sustained long-term performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+50,758
Contrarian
55% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
93 wins in a row
Whale
$581,552
High Roller
$3,635/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,095$52,104Vol: $1,650,298
🏛️ POLITICS#11,744$1,934Vol: $45,385
🎭 CULTURE#3,214$1,832Vol: $11,319
📢 MENTIONS#1,204$1,043Vol: $5,848
💰 FINANCE#10,880$233Vol: $3,639
📈 ECONOMICS#661,334$-804Vol: $2,030
💻 TECH#7,683$56Vol: $739
CRYPTO#82,840$113Vol: $626

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$50,758
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,920,618
Total Redeem
$114,459
Portfolio
$5,665
Predictions
3707
total markets
Trades
4076B / 2S
Daily Volume
$3,635
Account Age
165d
since Jan 20, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-17
Vol: $0
Week
$-312
Vol: $0
Month
$6,665
Vol: $82,364
All Time
$50,758
Vol: $1,920,618

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
256W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$193,701
Win Rate
55%
258W / 207L
Profit Factor
0.32x
Avg Win
$210
Avg Loss
$-815

Top Winners

Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider$9,524
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton$1,685
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Greet Minnen vs Lola Radivojevi$1,657
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland$1,622
O/U 1.5 Rounds$895
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics$860
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm$830
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?$790
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5$734
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)$691

Top Losers

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers$-10,303
Magic vs. Kings$-3,659
Suns vs. Raptors$-3,289
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverry$-2,330
Australian Open Women's: Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys$-2,254
Thunder vs. Pistons$-2,167
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros$-2,086
Spread: Lakers (-11.5)$-2,000
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko$-1,981
Open Sud de France: Martin Damm vs Luca Nardi$-1,951

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.384
Sortino
-0.468
HHI
15
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.500
Kelly %
7.5%
Half-Kelly
3.8%
Top-1 market
1.8%
Top-5 markets
3.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.9
Active
Markets / Day
14.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.4m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 297s — typical for humanSize CV 1.72 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.83 — human randomness29 trades/day — suspiciously high15 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2
Single entry
<=1
1421 entries
<=2
1685 entries
<=5
1938 entries
<=10
2033 entries
<=20
2050 entries
<=50
2057 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.3%
Mid (20-55c)64.7%
High (>55c)32.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.5%

Los Angeles$1,037
Atlanta$821
London$136
Houston$75
Denver$52
Austin$0
Beijing$0
Tel Aviv$0
Paris$0
Seoul$0
Shenzhen$0
Sao Paulo$0
Toronto$-194
San Francisco$-594
Chicago$-741
Seattle$-961
Madrid$-1,249
Dallas$-1,931

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
1768

Single bracket

<=1
1576 brackets
<=2
1711 brackets
<=3
1748 brackets
<=4
1760 brackets
<=5
1764 brackets
<=8
1766 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/20/2026, 7:35:24 PM2 trades$4742 min
1/20/2026, 7:58:18 PM1 trades$620 min
1/20/2026, 10:56:16 PM2 trades$3495 min
1/21/2026, 12:21:46 AM1 trades$1,2410 min
1/21/2026, 1:46:48 AM1 trades$3280 min
1/21/2026, 1:53:20 AM2 trades$9422 min
1/21/2026, 3:30:36 AM1 trades$2270 min
1/21/2026, 2:28:22 PM2 trades$6673 min
1/21/2026, 6:06:44 PM1 trades$980 min
1/21/2026, 10:50:46 PM1 trades$940 min
1/21/2026, 10:57:12 PM1 trades$7380 min
1/21/2026, 11:12:32 PM1 trades$3280 min
1/22/2026, 12:13:38 AM1 trades$1480 min
1/22/2026, 6:33:32 AM2 trades$4704 min
1/22/2026, 10:51:02 AM1 trades$980 min
1/22/2026, 11:46:28 AM2 trades$961 min
1/22/2026, 11:59:12 AM1 trades$760 min
1/22/2026, 12:32:30 PM1 trades$2,1580 min
1/22/2026, 2:09:00 PM1 trades$4910 min
1/22/2026, 3:27:34 PM1 trades$2010 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-30
02-18
03-10
03-29
05-02
05-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event