Polydata

@Waterlogged-Column

#3,27330

0x2f2b6e3176e4914ccc79111dd9c704904d390f9a

165d· 3707 markets · 4107 tradesVol: $1,920,6182026-07-05T00:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.30x0/15
HHI 1410/10
Profit Days 30%0/10

Summary

Waterlogged-Column is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 4,107 trades across 2,080 markets over 147 days. They currently rank #3273 globally on the PnL leaderboard, having achieved a net profit of $51,122.15 from a total trading volume of nearly $1.92 million. Despite a substantial profit, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, and their portfolio value is relatively low at $541.68, indicating possible recent withdrawals or realized gains.

This trader appears to employ a contrarian strategy, as suggested by the Contrarian badge, and prefers frequent, short-term trades given the high trade count and zero max drawdown duration. Their win rate of 54.7% and a profit factor of 0.30 imply a cautious approach, but the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.41) points to riskier outcomes relative to returns. Waterlogged-Column does not engage in weather markets and shows no selling activity, hinting at a buy-and-hold or diamond hands style, consistent with the Diamond Hands badge.

Waterlogged-Column’s strengths include a steady upward equity trend and notable win streaks, signaling persistence and resilience. However, the low profit factor and negative risk-adjusted returns highlight potential volatility in performance. The semi-bot trading style suggests some automation, but the below-average Smart Score indicates room for improvement in decision-making or strategy refinement on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+51,122
Contrarian
55% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
106 wins in a row
Whale
$597,139
High Roller
$4,062/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,187$52,110Vol: $1,650,298
🏛️ POLITICS#10,646$2,274Vol: $45,385
🎭 CULTURE#3,254$1,834Vol: $11,319
📢 MENTIONS#1,205$1,043Vol: $5,848
💰 FINANCE#10,923$233Vol: $3,639
📈 ECONOMICS#663,665$-804Vol: $2,030
💻 TECH#6,760$72Vol: $739
CRYPTO#83,681$113Vol: $626

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$51,122
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,920,618
Total Redeem
$119,945
Portfolio
$542
Predictions
3707
total markets
Trades
4105B / 2S
Daily Volume
$4,062
Account Age
165d
since Jan 20, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $0
Week
$247
Vol: $0
Month
$80
Vol: $0
All Time
$51,122
Vol: $1,920,618

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
240W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$193,701
Win Rate
55%
277W / 229L
Profit Factor
0.3x
Avg Win
$200
Avg Loss
$-810

Top Winners

Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider$9,524
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton$1,685
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Greet Minnen vs Lola Radivojevi$1,657
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland$1,622
O/U 1.5 Rounds$895
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics$860
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm$830
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?$790
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5$734
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)$691

Top Losers

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers$-10,277
Magic vs. Kings$-3,659
Suns vs. Raptors$-3,289
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs$-2,900
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverry$-2,330
Australian Open Women's: Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys$-2,254
Thunder vs. Pistons$-2,167
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros$-2,086
Spread: Lakers (-11.5)$-2,000
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko$-1,981

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.414
Sortino
-0.512
HHI
14
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.520
Kelly %
3.7%
Half-Kelly
1.8%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
3.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
29.1
Active
Markets / Day
14.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.0m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 297s — typical for humanSize CV 1.73 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.83 — human randomness29 trades/day — suspiciously high15 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2
Single entry
<=1
1439 entries
<=2
1706 entries
<=5
1960 entries
<=10
2055 entries
<=20
2072 entries
<=50
2079 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.2%
Mid (20-55c)64.6%
High (>55c)32.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.7%

Los Angeles$1,158
Atlanta$821
London$136
Denver$52
Austin$0
Beijing$0
Tel Aviv$0
Paris$0
Seoul$0
Shenzhen$0
Sao Paulo$0
Toronto$-194
Houston$-455
San Francisco$-586
Seattle$-949
Chicago$-1,214
Madrid$-1,241
Dallas$-1,931

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
1778

Single bracket

<=1
1583 brackets
<=2
1719 brackets
<=3
1757 brackets
<=4
1770 brackets
<=5
1774 brackets
<=8
1776 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/20/2026, 7:35:24 PM2 trades$4742 min
1/20/2026, 7:58:18 PM1 trades$620 min
1/20/2026, 10:56:16 PM2 trades$3495 min
1/21/2026, 12:21:46 AM1 trades$1,2410 min
1/21/2026, 1:46:48 AM1 trades$3280 min
1/21/2026, 1:53:20 AM2 trades$9422 min
1/21/2026, 3:15:20 AM1 trades$9000 min
1/21/2026, 3:30:36 AM1 trades$2270 min
1/21/2026, 2:28:22 PM2 trades$6673 min
1/21/2026, 3:19:18 PM1 trades$2460 min
1/21/2026, 6:06:44 PM1 trades$980 min
1/21/2026, 10:50:46 PM1 trades$940 min
1/21/2026, 10:57:12 PM1 trades$7380 min
1/21/2026, 11:12:32 PM1 trades$3280 min
1/22/2026, 12:13:38 AM2 trades$6012 min
1/22/2026, 6:33:32 AM2 trades$4704 min
1/22/2026, 10:51:02 AM1 trades$980 min
1/22/2026, 11:46:28 AM2 trades$961 min
1/22/2026, 11:59:12 AM1 trades$760 min
1/22/2026, 12:32:30 PM1 trades$2,1580 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-22
02-11
03-05
03-25
04-23
05-25
06-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event