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@Wilted-Echidna

#2,800,61217

0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3

172d· 84 markets · 14239 tradesVol: $25,489,8902026-06-06T00:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 36%3/20
Profit Factor 0.94x2/15
HHI 9098/10
Profit Days 47%4/10
DD/Peak 134%0/10

Summary

Wilted-Echidna is a highly active trader on Polymarket with 14,239 trades executed across 84 markets over 377 days. Despite this high volume, their net profit and loss stands at a significant negative $222,582.31, placing them at rank #2,800,612 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their portfolio value is over $1 million, but the overall performance metrics, including a Smart Score of 17/100 and a negative Sharpe ratio, indicate beginner-level results and underperformance relative to risk taken.

The trading style of Wilted-Echidna appears to be high-risk and high-volume, with a low win rate of 28.1% and a profit factor of 0.21. The trader shows minimal selling activity (6%) and no exposure to weather markets, suggesting a focus on other event categories. Their timing seems frequent and possibly automated, given a semi-bot score of 40/100, but the strategy may lean toward contrarian and lottery-like bets, as implied by their badges. The equity trend is upward, indicating some recovery or portfolio growth despite overall losses.

Key strengths of Wilted-Echidna include significant market engagement and a growing equity trend, which may offer opportunities for learning and adjustment. However, their low win rate, large negative PnL, and below-average risk-adjusted returns highlight substantial risks. The combination of high trading volume with poor profitability suggests that the trader’s approach may need refinement to improve consistency and reduce drawdowns on Polymarket.

Badges

5
Lottery Player
42% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
6% sell
Whale
$11,395,373
High Roller
$30,226/day

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,696,416$-1,099,170Vol: $17,951,902
🏛️ POLITICS#46$794,140Vol: $6,646,229
🎭 CULTURE#409$17,943Vol: $450,378

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-222,582
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,489,890
Total Redeem
$1,301,227
Portfolio
$1,049,474
Predictions
84
total markets
Trades
13350B / 889S
Daily Volume
$30,226
Account Age
172d
since Jan 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$4,064
Vol: $0
Week
$22,110
Vol: $0
Month
$22,110
Vol: $0
All Time
$-222,582
Vol: $25,489,890

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
41%
24W / 34L events
Realized PnL
$3,637,305
Win Rate
28%
9W / 23L
Profit Factor
0.21x
Avg Win
$101,995
Avg Loss
$-193,208

Top Winners

Knicks vs. 76ers$488,976
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$235,107
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterwe$108,061
Timberwolves vs. Spurs$43,141
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$32,795
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?$6,602
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils$1,468
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor$1,201
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$606

Top Losers

Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?$-2,595,661
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios$-376,889
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Car$-319,740
Rockets vs. Lakers$-299,091
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$-255,960
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev$-143,090
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$-101,472
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?$-76,737
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-56,082
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?$-41,317

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.016
Sortino
-0.014
HHI
909
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.045
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
22.8%
Top-5 markets
50.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
88.2
Very active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.0m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
13.81
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
15.2

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 13.81 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness88 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
158.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
2 entries
<=2
6 entries
<=5
8 entries
<=10
11 entries
<=20
18 entries
<=50
30 entries
>50
54 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)42.2%
Mid (20-55c)28%
High (>55c)29.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 77.3%

Madrid$166
Miami$0
Other$-3,525,984

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
58

Single bracket

<=1
53 brackets
<=2
55 brackets
<=3
56 brackets
<=4
56 brackets
<=5
56 brackets
<=8
56 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/18/2025, 7:49:28 AM62 trades$256,2805 min
12/18/2025, 8:08:49 AM1 trades$1000 min
12/18/2025, 8:31:18 AM57 trades$11,60417 min
12/18/2025, 8:53:14 AM2 trades$1010 min
12/18/2025, 9:02:56 AM22 trades$5,8643 min
12/18/2025, 9:11:38 AM8 trades$2913 min
12/18/2025, 9:20:04 AM3 trades$106,5924 min
12/18/2025, 9:31:22 AM2 trades$1672 min
12/18/2025, 9:44:08 AM1 trades$1370 min
12/18/2025, 9:50:40 AM3 trades$1390 min
12/18/2025, 10:06:42 AM1 trades$790 min
12/18/2025, 10:33:42 AM1 trades$2780 min
12/18/2025, 11:04:16 AM1 trades$21,9460 min
12/18/2025, 11:09:42 AM1 trades$40 min
12/18/2025, 11:18:20 AM2 trades$2812 min
12/18/2025, 11:29:54 AM1 trades$5100 min
12/18/2025, 11:35:50 AM1 trades$10 min
12/18/2025, 11:41:30 AM3 trades$133 min
12/18/2025, 1:22:56 PM1 trades$33,7010 min
12/18/2025, 2:01:46 PM2 trades$560 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-19
02-06
02-14
04-03
05-01
05-10
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 158.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event