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@aapang

#2,903,56262

0x104171232971a6db8cf938f76fdbebbb81c5f452

196d· 6974 markets · 8843 tradesVol: $9,198,6542026-07-05T08:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

62
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 4%0/20
Profit Factor 1.51x9/15
Sharpe 0.3667/15
Sortino 0.99110/10
EV $+0.68610/10
HHI 17910/10
Profit Days 57%7/10
DD/Peak 24%9/10

Summary

The trader aapang is moderately active on Polymarket, having made 8,843 trades across 1,455 markets over 205 days. Despite a substantial total volume of $9.2 million, aapang’s net PnL stands at negative $2,095.34, placing them at rank #2,903,562 globally. Their portfolio value remains stable at approximately $3,650, and their Smart Score of 62/100 indicates a good, though not exceptional, trading performance.

aapang primarily focuses on weather-related markets, which constitute 88% of their trades. Their trading style combines semi-automated bot activity with manual adjustments, reflected in a Bot Score of 65/100. With a high win rate of 89.5% and a profit factor of 4.23, aapang adopts a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach, favoring sell-side positions 78% of the time. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.37 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, and their equity trend is flat, indicating stable but unspectacular portfolio growth.

Key strengths for aapang include a disciplined contrarian strategy and consistent success in niche weather markets, supported by a strong win streak and good risk control as shown by zero max drawdown duration. However, the negative net PnL and low overall rank highlight potential concerns regarding profitability and scalability. The semi-bot trading style may also expose aapang to automated system risks or reduced adaptability in fast-changing markets.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 7.7 entries/market
Weather Pro
88% weather
Win Streak
23 wins in a row
Whale
$337,848
High Roller
$1,648/day
Cool Head
DD 24%

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#288,943$-5,886Vol: $4,695,962
SPORTS#1,792,554$-6,397Vol: $3,785,185
🏛️ POLITICS#12,890$1,680Vol: $236,166
💰 FINANCE#627,753$-188Vol: $1,280
📈 ECONOMICS#61,557$4Vol: $201
CRYPTO#501,204$0Vol: $200
🎭 CULTURE#275,983$0Vol: $4

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,095
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,198,654
Total Redeem
$230,299
Portfolio
$3,650
Predictions
6974
total markets
Trades
1966B / 6877S
Daily Volume
$1,648
Account Age
196d
since Dec 25, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-47
Vol: $8,231
Week
$-5,316
Vol: $8,231
Month
$191
Vol: $67,401
All Time
$-2,095
Vol: $9,198,654

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
15%
186W / 1042L events
Realized PnL
$889,513
Win Rate
90%
111W / 13L
Profit Factor
4.23x
Avg Win
$484
Avg Loss
$-978

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $16,429 (40% of PnL)

Top Winners

Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5$5,662
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)$5,484
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5$5,283
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11?$5,000
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)$4,993
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5$3,497
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5$3,027
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5$2,176
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?$2,049
Spread: Norway (-1.5)$1,943

Top Losers

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$-6,520
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5$-1,609
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5$-1,228
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$-810
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5$-708
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5$-702
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5$-613
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5$-246
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4?$-98
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5$-91

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.366
Sortino
0.992
HHI
180
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.686
Kelly %
80.9%
Half-Kelly
40.5%
Top-1 market
4.4%
Top-5 markets
17.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
57.7
Very active
Markets / Day
9.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
18.9m
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 174s — typical for humanSize CV 3.86 — diverse, typical for human30% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness58 trades/day — mass trading7392 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.7
Active DCA
<=1
99 entries
<=2
138 entries
<=5
185 entries
<=10
203 entries
<=20
232 entries
<=50
250 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.4%
Mid (20-55c)51.3%
High (>55c)31.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35.1%

Other$33,857
Hong Kong$7,199
Shenzhen$0
Shanghai$0
Buenos Aires$0
Ankara$0
Toronto$0
Tokyo$0
Chicago$0
New York City$0
Seoul$0
Chongqing$0
Beijing$0
Chengdu$0
Wuhan$0
Sao Paulo$0
Warsaw$0
Lucknow$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
609

Moderate coverage

<=1
297 brackets
<=2
428 brackets
<=3
489 brackets
<=4
533 brackets
<=5
551 brackets
<=8
600 brackets
>8
9 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/1/2026, 11:01:28 PM1 trades$6170 min
2/2/2026, 12:00:34 AM1 trades$1,5440 min
2/2/2026, 11:41:56 PM3 trades$3393 min
2/2/2026, 11:52:00 PM1 trades$1000 min
2/4/2026, 12:08:34 AM1 trades$4800 min
2/4/2026, 1:24:50 AM1 trades$1000 min
2/4/2026, 5:50:18 AM2 trades$25 min
2/5/2026, 12:26:57 AM1 trades$930 min
2/5/2026, 12:59:33 AM1 trades$670 min
2/5/2026, 2:21:55 AM2 trades$20 min
2/6/2026, 4:54:49 AM2 trades$2000 min
2/9/2026, 2:02:35 AM1 trades$1000 min
2/9/2026, 2:22:11 AM3 trades$1502 min
2/9/2026, 11:55:39 PM4 trades$3758 min
2/10/2026, 12:09:17 AM2 trades$1,8442 min
2/10/2026, 9:56:37 AM1 trades$1000 min
2/10/2026, 10:05:01 AM5 trades$1,1037 min
2/11/2026, 12:39:37 AM1 trades$1000 min
2/11/2026, 12:47:25 AM1 trades$3000 min
2/11/2026, 3:07:03 AM1 trades$80 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-27
02-01
03-03
04-15
05-11
06-06
07-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
88% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
77.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event