@alternatefuture

#2,523,69422

0x2b303dd51770badb8d2118db860b846888e02020

~13d· 18 markets · 102 tradesVol: $4,4352026-09-23 04:03:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (8/16)10/20
0.50x (win $50 / loss $101)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.3950/15
Sortino -5.5770/10
$-0.0586 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1126 (16 markets)6.9/10
4/8 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 276% of peak ($84 / $30)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
34% entries < $0.20

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#1,508,145$-80Vol: $4,016
📢 MENTIONS#149,351$-23Vol: $248
🎭 CULTURE#50,787$18Vol: $124
📈 ECONOMICS#76,336$3Vol: $47

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-82
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,435
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
18
total markets
Trades
35B / 67S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~13d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-2
Vol: $907
Month
$28
Vol: $2,526
All Time
$-82
Vol: $4,435

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
8W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$-82
Win Rate
50%
8W / 8L
Profit Factor
0.5x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $33 (0.4039678675754625% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1?$16
Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" 4+ times during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?$11
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?$6
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?$6
Will Andrew Holness be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?$5
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?$3
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$3

Top Losers

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?$-42
Will Trump say "United States" 2+ times during the UK state banquet on September 17?$-25
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?$-14
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?$-10
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?$-5
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?$-4
Trump out as President in 2025?$-1
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.264
Sortino
-0.265
HHI
220
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.133
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.3%
Top-5 markets
27.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.8h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.31
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
25
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 249s — normal for humanCV 1.31 — diverse sizes (human-like)4% night trades — normal pattern11/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal15% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.94
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)34.3%
Mid (20-55c)25.7%
High (>55c)40%

Sessions

#12
9/11/2026, 8:03:00 AM41 trades$1,44218 min
4/30/2026, 11:37:52 AM17 trades$4231 min
9/18/2026, 8:26:43 AM10 trades$2620 min
9/4/2025, 10:10:16 AM2 trades$920 min
9/16/2025, 11:45:26 AM2 trades$674 min
9/18/2025, 6:48:28 AM2 trades$581 min
9/1/2025, 9:21:40 AM1 trades$500 min
9/17/2025, 2:38:40 PM2 trades$462 min
9/16/2025, 12:10:06 PM4 trades$438 min
9/4/2025, 8:46:54 AM1 trades$430 min
9/2/2025, 6:29:03 AM2 trades$403 min
4/30/2026, 9:49:42 PM1 trades$360 min
9/26/2025, 11:25:28 AM1 trades$270 min
9/17/2025, 2:33:14 PM1 trades$250 min
9/4/2025, 5:16:22 AM3 trades$233 min
9/16/2025, 6:58:36 AM1 trades$220 min
4/30/2026, 6:28:54 PM1 trades$200 min
9/4/2025, 6:56:24 AM1 trades$200 min
9/2/2025, 12:06:18 PM2 trades$194 min
9/3/2025, 8:29:16 AM1 trades$150 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-01
09-02
09-04
09-16
09-17
09-18
09-26
02-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 22 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
65.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.94/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L34.3 / M25.7 / H40