bisonhead

@bisonhead

#74,71032

0xdd9311d19221e811fda903a5a7e2475613b9a22b

~113d· 264 markets · 1829 tradesVol: $791,237 @100MBTC2026-09-10 21:13:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

34% (89/259)2.2/20
1.07x (win $18,420 / loss $17,154)3.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.4077.6/15
Sortino 0.6586.6/10
$+0.0168 per $1 invested0.8/10
HHI 144 (259 markets)10/10
30/87 profitable days (34%)1.1/10
Max DD 74% of peak ($3,608 / $4,874)0/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+2,678
Lottery Player
47% entries < $0.20
Whale
$75,536 invested
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🎭 CULTURE#2,246$3,224Vol: $646,554
💰 FINANCE#665,698$-1,923Vol: $113,856
🏛️ POLITICS#1,613,632$-527Vol: $19,881
CRYPTO#40,687$594Vol: $5,006
💻 TECH#253,598$-44Vol: $3,765
📈 ECONOMICS#635,782$-20Vol: $2,024
📢 MENTIONS#169,436$-100Vol: $152

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,205
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$791,237
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
264
total markets
Trades
582B / 1247S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~113d

Periods

#2
Today
$-77
Vol: $8,134
Week
$-149
Vol: $14,675
Month
$-223
Vol: $28,861
All Time
$1,205
Vol: $791,237

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
35%
89W / 168L events
Realized PnL
$2,678
Win Rate
35%
89W / 168L
Profit Factor
1.07x
Avg Win
$207
Avg Loss
$-102

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $7,112 (2.6562035508615733% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$3,599
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$1,914
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$1,599
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?$1,598
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$1,333
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?$672
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$669
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?$487
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?$404
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?$372

Top Losers

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$-3,336
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$-599
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?$-532
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?$-497
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?$-421
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?$-413
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$-397
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$-394
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?$-391
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?$-357

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.021
Sortino
0.031
HHI
170
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.016
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
20.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.0

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 562s — normal for humanCV 1.78 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.6 markets/day — normal19% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.05
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)47.3%
Mid (20-55c)25.3%
High (>55c)27.5%

Sessions

#12
5/22/2026, 11:57:06 PM3 trades$5,0000 min
6/9/2026, 6:04:33 AM31 trades$4,6199 min
5/31/2026, 9:57:23 AM2 trades$2,3470 min
6/7/2026, 8:00:49 PM13 trades$2,0690 min
8/11/2026, 7:33:37 PM6 trades$2,0610 min
12/9/2025, 3:54:00 PM2 trades$2,0502 min
7/27/2026, 5:06:19 PM19 trades$1,8120 min
7/27/2026, 6:44:18 PM4 trades$1,7510 min
5/23/2026, 12:18:19 AM6 trades$1,4850 min
7/16/2026, 1:27:07 PM3 trades$1,4700 min
1/10/2026, 1:26:26 PM2 trades$1,4111 min
12/23/2025, 2:57:23 PM2 trades$1,4102 min
12/30/2025, 4:23:31 AM1 trades$1,4080 min
12/25/2025, 7:07:41 AM1 trades$1,4060 min
12/26/2025, 7:12:29 AM1 trades$1,4000 min
12/23/2025, 9:43:27 AM1 trades$1,3940 min
12/25/2025, 3:07:15 AM1 trades$1,3700 min
12/30/2025, 5:01:53 AM1 trades$1,3670 min
5/28/2026, 3:59:07 AM2 trades$1,3330 min
8/11/2026, 9:51:01 PM15 trades$1,2640 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-22
12-05
12-22
01-07
01-22
05-31
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 26 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
68.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.05/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L47.3 / M25.3 / H27.5