@chivoexpiatorio
#16,884460x73bb531d8cfabcdd61f9e7bc08e8d2554bc69473
~91d· 84 markets · 393 tradesVol: $756,4262026-08-02 08:54:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
46
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
35% (28/79)2.7/20
1.19x (win $38,386 / loss $32,293)4.9/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.11315/15
Sortino 2.04510/10
$+0.0374 per $1 invested1.9/10
HHI 552 (79 markets)9.7/10
17/44 profitable days (39%)2.2/10
Max DD 69% of peak ($10,552 / $15,229)0.1/10
Badges
5Profitable
PnL $+8,443
Contrarian
51% entries < $0.55
Whale
$162,763 invested
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Overview
#1Net PnL
$8,443
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$756,426
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
84
total markets
Trades
237B / 156S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~91d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
35%
28W / 51L events
Realized PnL
$8,443
Win Rate
35%
28W / 51L
Profit Factor
1.19x
Avg Win
$1,371
Avg Loss
$-633
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $17,572 (2.0810790324853823% of PnL)
Top Winners
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?$8,009
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?$4,977
Biden drops out of presidential race?$4,585
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?$3,509
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$3,320
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?$2,349
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$2,006
Fed rate cut by June meeting?$1,654
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?$1,268
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?$1,099
Top Losers
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$-4,628
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?$-4,173
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?$-3,800
Who will win the debate according to polls?$-1,667
Fed rate cut by September meeting?$-1,554
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$-1,500
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?$-1,390
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?$-1,091
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?$-1,073
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$-1,034
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.058
Sortino
0.105
HHI
446
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.038
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10%
Top-5 markets
37.6%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1h
between trades
Night Trading
44%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.09
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.0
Bot Detection
#630
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 250s — normal for humanCV 2.09 — diverse sizes (human-like)44% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal20% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 16:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
4.71
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)27.4%
Mid (20-55c)23.2%
High (>55c)49.4%
Sessions
#1211/1/2025, 2:25:59 PM1 trades$21,2140 min
1/3/2026, 10:07:27 AM3 trades$18,3582 min
1/24/2026, 2:19:32 AM3 trades$15,8664 min
1/12/2026, 8:49:17 PM1 trades$12,2170 min
2/19/2026, 3:25:14 AM1 trades$11,6800 min
6/19/2026, 4:22:13 PM64 trades$10,9394 min
3/1/2026, 10:10:09 PM1 trades$8,9820 min
2/28/2026, 8:07:43 PM5 trades$8,6425 min
8/8/2025, 2:00:19 AM9 trades$8,1669 min
12/11/2025, 1:03:59 AM2 trades$8,0001 min
9/11/2024, 2:01:41 AM2 trades$7,4921 min
9/5/2024, 11:36:32 PM2 trades$5,9161 min
8/14/2025, 1:02:10 AM3 trades$5,5595 min
2/9/2026, 12:56:55 AM1 trades$5,0000 min
6/26/2025, 12:40:49 AM6 trades$4,4608 min
1/13/2026, 9:58:52 PM1 trades$4,2700 min
7/1/2025, 10:19:23 AM2 trades$4,1583 min
5/17/2026, 9:21:08 PM2 trades$4,0000 min
6/23/2025, 5:03:51 PM3 trades$3,8733 min
7/19/2024, 4:44:57 PM1 trades$3,4990 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-11
09-18
06-26
09-19
11-25
01-24
06-08
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 434 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.71/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L27.4 / M23.2 / H49.4