@empiricist

#1,827,76914

0x0c6ee17981386d54dfefad5ca659bc951007a4f9

~33d· 50 markets · 142 tradesVol: $1,1512026-10-08 03:16:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

39% (9/23)4.6/20
0.60x (win $13 / loss $21)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.1030/15
Sortino -5.1650/10
$-0.0141 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1303 (23 markets)6/10
8/18 profitable days (44%)3.6/10
Max DD 316% of peak ($12 / $4)0/10

Badges

1
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#237,912$-7Vol: $698
🏛️ POLITICS#935,143$-1Vol: $433
📈 ECONOMICS#453,867$-1Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-9
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,151
Total Redeem
$2
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
50
total markets
Trades
75B / 67S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~33d

Periods

#2
Today
$-12
Vol: $224
Week
$11
Vol: $601
Month
$-2
Vol: $917
All Time
$-9
Vol: $1,151

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
39%
9W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$-9
Win Rate
39%
9W / 14L
Profit Factor
0.6x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $12 (1.2307692307692306% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$4
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$1
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$0
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?$0
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$0

Top Losers

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$-4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$-4
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$-2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$-2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$-2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$-2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$-1
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$-1
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$-1
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.209
Sortino
-0.431
HHI
2
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.261
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.7%
Top-5 markets
2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
12/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
5.5h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.44
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
46
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 71s — normal for humanCV 1.44 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern12/24 hours — normal schedule1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal37% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.91
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.3%
Mid (20-55c)16%
High (>55c)70.7%

Sessions

#12
10/7/2026, 6:00:16 PM30 trades$2677 min
10/3/2026, 3:29:33 PM9 trades$1622 min
9/26/2026, 10:19:33 PM5 trades$891 min
10/1/2026, 9:14:38 PM8 trades$691 min
9/30/2026, 6:16:38 PM7 trades$682 min
9/29/2026, 6:20:56 PM7 trades$621 min
10/4/2026, 10:29:46 AM6 trades$411 min
10/4/2026, 3:29:55 PM4 trades$271 min
5/29/2026, 6:32:38 PM4 trades$241 min
9/26/2026, 11:48:27 AM3 trades$230 min
9/30/2026, 6:03:48 PM2 trades$200 min
10/1/2026, 5:42:54 PM4 trades$180 min
8/22/2026, 8:09:28 PM2 trades$140 min
8/22/2026, 10:43:31 PM3 trades$120 min
5/25/2026, 9:33:09 AM2 trades$120 min
5/23/2026, 6:49:27 PM6 trades$51 min
10/1/2026, 6:21:02 PM2 trades$40 min
5/21/2026, 9:22:48 PM2 trades$30 min
3/16/2026, 6:24:35 PM2 trades$20 min
5/15/2026, 8:08:09 PM2 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-08
02-12
03-06
03-16
05-22
05-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 78 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
47.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.91/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L13.3 / M16 / H70.7