@longcastles

#3,074,10835

0xbd9865bb13b296530e677d012f4bdd1f9fcae83a

~20d· 18 markets · 84 tradesVol: $152,9622026-09-10 22:45:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

76% (13/17)20/20
0.36x (win $1,825 / loss $5,093)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.7610/15
Sortino -4.7170/10
$-0.1876 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1534 (17 markets)4.8/10
12/16 profitable days (75%)10/10
Max DD 9318% of peak ($3,783 / $41)0/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 76%
Consistent
12/16 profitable days
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#19,844$873Vol: $138,229
⚽ SPORTS#1,893,230$-4,052Vol: $12,606
💻 TECH#3,124$325Vol: $1,012
🎭 CULTURE#13,611$216Vol: $900

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,599
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$152,962
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
18
total markets
Trades
26B / 58S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~20d

Periods

#2
Week
$113
Vol: $0
Month
$789
Vol: $0
All Time
$-2,599
Vol: $152,962

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
76%
13W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$-3,896
Win Rate
76%
13W / 4L
Profit Factor
0.36x
Avg Win
$140
Avg Loss
$-1,273

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $985 (0.2528742713250525% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Biden finish his term?$357
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?$319
Astros vs. Angels$310
Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?$235
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?$216
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?$180
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?$70
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$59
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?$39
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?$19

Top Losers

Super Bowl LIX Winner$-3,066
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner$-1,000
Lakers vs. Hornets$-627
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-400

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.241
Sortino
-0.167
HHI
1033
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.230
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
23.5%
Top-5 markets
58.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
32.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.9h
between trades
Night Trading
79%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.22
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
24
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
HIGH
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1923s — normal for humanCV 1.22 — diverse sizes (human-like)79% night trades — never sleeps16/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal8% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.47
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.5%
Mid (20-55c)26.9%
High (>55c)61.5%

Sessions

#12
8/7/2026, 5:03:10 AM59 trades$19,1490 min
2/9/2025, 2:59:13 AM1 trades$3,0660 min
11/27/2024, 2:54:05 AM1 trades$2,6080 min
11/29/2024, 4:09:24 AM1 trades$1,4920 min
11/27/2024, 3:26:08 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
6/19/2025, 10:49:50 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
6/25/2025, 1:23:27 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
6/20/2025, 11:33:28 PM1 trades$8000 min
1/29/2025, 10:44:06 PM1 trades$6840 min
1/27/2025, 8:52:38 PM1 trades$6270 min
3/18/2025, 7:37:46 PM1 trades$5000 min
6/25/2025, 1:51:47 AM2 trades$4001 min
2/3/2025, 6:56:12 PM1 trades$3000 min
1/10/2025, 4:18:30 PM1 trades$2840 min
1/29/2025, 11:54:20 PM2 trades$1972 min
6/16/2025, 2:48:57 PM1 trades$1030 min
1/28/2025, 7:29:01 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/15/2024, 7:39:39 AM1 trades$490 min
6/11/2025, 6:54:13 PM1 trades$440 min
8/28/2024, 12:35:36 PM1 trades$200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-28
11-27
01-10
01-28
02-03
02-09
06-16
06-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 86 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
69% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.47/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11.5 / M26.9 / H61.5