nicholsonarjun

@nicholsonarjun

#1,987,91935

0x4308fcd220a38bb5f2291c65fcb69c4f2e05bc77

~30d· 30 markets · 56 tradesVol: $19,2032026-09-21 20:14:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

27% (7/26)0/20
1.12x (win $303 / loss $271)4/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.78714.8/15
Sortino 1.19510/10
$+0.0022 per $1 invested0.1/10
HHI 1199 (26 markets)6.5/10
6/25 profitable days (24%)0/10
Max DD 183% of peak ($137 / $75)0/10

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#1,295,165$-11Vol: $16,704
⚽ SPORTS#1,183,420$-4Vol: $2,475
₿ CRYPTO#677,650$-0Vol: $13
🎭 CULTURE#380,730$-0Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-15
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,203
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
30
total markets
Trades
35B / 21S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~30d

Periods

#2
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-15
Vol: $19,203

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
27%
7W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$-13
Win Rate
27%
7W / 19L
Profit Factor
1.12x
Avg Win
$43
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $247 (18.914373088685014% of PnL)

Top Winners

Blues vs. Red Wings$107
Heat vs. Magic$106
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner$35
Dolphins vs. Patriots$27
Buccaneers vs. Texans$15
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3$13
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June?$0

Top Losers

South Florida vs. San José State$-153
Pistons vs. Hornets$-89
Giants vs. Diamondbacks$-13
Blue Jays vs. Rays$-8
MLB All-Star Game$-3
Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%?$-2
Fulham wins the Premier League?$-1
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?$-1
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$-0
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.040
Sortino
0.057
HHI
3
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.049
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
3.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8h
between trades
Avg Gap
8.6h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
44
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 17134s — normal for humanCV 1.73 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern16/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal14% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.54
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.6%
Mid (20-55c)28.6%
High (>55c)62.9%

Sessions

#12
8/15/2026, 5:59:27 PM4 trades$3,4662 min
8/16/2026, 10:03:13 AM4 trades$3,4642 min
8/15/2026, 4:33:03 PM4 trades$3,4562 min
8/17/2026, 8:27:00 AM2 trades$1,7280 min
8/15/2026, 2:52:15 PM2 trades$1,7260 min
12/23/2024, 11:19:10 PM1 trades$1530 min
12/26/2024, 9:52:54 AM1 trades$1040 min
12/23/2024, 4:19:44 AM1 trades$1030 min
11/21/2024, 5:16:37 AM1 trades$890 min
10/7/2024, 6:10:35 AM1 trades$590 min
10/6/2024, 2:09:13 PM1 trades$320 min
10/4/2024, 10:00:53 AM1 trades$190 min
9/17/2025, 1:49:16 PM1 trades$130 min
9/15/2025, 7:23:48 AM1 trades$120 min
9/16/2025, 10:58:54 AM1 trades$80 min
4/17/2025, 8:16:21 AM1 trades$50 min
4/17/2025, 1:39:24 PM1 trades$50 min
5/14/2025, 4:28:24 AM1 trades$50 min
5/14/2025, 7:56:48 AM1 trades$50 min
4/30/2025, 10:38:07 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-04
12-16
03-13
04-10
05-07
06-24
09-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 77 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.54/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L8.6 / M28.6 / H62.9