noblesse.oblige

@noblesse.oblige

#3,154,2603

0x24d2dce995531ddcde1960388cbf20f5edd41472

~165d· 145 markets · 3870 tradesVol: $2,428,3442026-09-21 18:49:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

3
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

19% (25/135)0/20
0.48x (win $54,141 / loss $112,992)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.8930/15
Sortino -2.3320/10
$-0.3385 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1921 (135 markets)2.9/10
11/57 profitable days (19%)0/10
Max DD 2614% of peak ($96,895 / $3,707)0/10

Badges

3
Lottery Player
71% entries < $0.20
Whale
$173,864 invested
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,647,148$-40,674Vol: $1,956,941
📈 ECONOMICS#692,314$-735Vol: $294,803
🎭 CULTURE#821,636$-4,164Vol: $141,750
₿ CRYPTO#384,312$1Vol: $25,285
⚽ SPORTS#1,593,379$-44Vol: $5,481
📢 MENTIONS#17,269$14Vol: $83

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-45,604
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,428,344
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
145
total markets
Trades
2960B / 910S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~165d

Periods

#2
Today
$37
Vol: $80,450
Week
$-1,014
Vol: $275,483
Month
$-763
Vol: $309,047
All Time
$-45,604
Vol: $2,428,344

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
18%
24W / 111L events
Realized PnL
$-46,110
Win Rate
18%
24W / 111L
Profit Factor
0.48x
Avg Win
$2,166
Avg Loss
$-1,037

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $51,914 (1.1258598411720082% of PnL)

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$46,367
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$4,443
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1,104
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$416
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?$375
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?$367
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?$293
Will Biden pardon Fauci?$292
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14?$139
Will Biden pardon Adam Kinzinger?$104

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$-54,993
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$-27,939
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$-11,788
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$-5,266
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?$-4,459
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$-2,456
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$-963
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?$-841
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$-424
Was JFK assassination an inside job?$-357

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.098
Sortino
-0.112
HHI
3848
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.252
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
45.9%
Top-5 markets
110%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
44.2m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.9

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 120s — normal for humanCV 6.39 — diverse sizes (human-like)22% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock6 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal48% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
31.9
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)70.8%
Mid (20-55c)17.4%
High (>55c)11.8%

Sessions

#12
4/12/2026, 6:44:23 PM12 trades$64,0864 min
12/27/2025, 6:18:05 PM1 trades$14,2990 min
2/22/2025, 7:16:06 AM1 trades$9,9990 min
4/12/2026, 7:18:45 PM28 trades$6,8089 min
2/23/2025, 9:14:25 AM4 trades$6,1550 min
12/27/2025, 4:45:27 AM2 trades$5,3633 min
2/27/2025, 9:11:51 AM2 trades$4,0370 min
9/11/2026, 12:58:37 PM4 trades$4,0000 min
4/19/2025, 2:57:12 PM15 trades$3,74120 min
1/1/2026, 10:00:11 AM2 trades$3,4211 min
10/16/2025, 3:58:31 PM7 trades$3,26714 min
1/31/2026, 2:44:22 PM1 trades$3,1240 min
2/24/2025, 11:53:19 AM1 trades$2,9640 min
2/27/2025, 1:54:29 AM11 trades$2,8439 min
12/28/2025, 2:34:37 AM2 trades$2,8410 min
2/27/2025, 7:14:03 PM1 trades$2,5840 min
9/4/2026, 1:30:21 PM18 trades$2,5745 min
4/19/2025, 2:49:01 PM4 trades$2,5662 min
2/27/2025, 2:33:52 PM5 trades$2,50210 min
1/22/2026, 10:20:24 AM3 trades$2,4953 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-17
02-21
03-14
06-03
02-26
05-20
06-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 408 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 31.9/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L70.8 / M17.4 / H11.8