@oliverbigfly

#3,016,36339

0x3d7132b61da1533afe09e1c293f479d3d054d427

~55d· 108 markets · 482 tradesVol: $25,4432026-08-05 15:51:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

39
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

75% (72/96)20/20
0.92x (win $1,643 / loss $1,778)1.5/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.4490/15
Sortino -0.4960/10
$-0.0081 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 919 (96 markets)7.9/10
26/38 profitable days (68%)9.6/10
Max DD 120% of peak ($818 / $683)0/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 75%
Consistent
26/38 profitable days
Win Streak
10 wins in a row

Categories

8
💰 FINANCE#656,296$-1,852Vol: $13,916
🏛️ POLITICS#1,357,219$-18Vol: $5,658
⚽ SPORTS#1,810,997$-673Vol: $2,173
📈 ECONOMICS#651,986$-60Vol: $2,019
💻 TECH#12,239$23Vol: $1,610
🎭 CULTURE#552,325$-1Vol: $46
₿ CRYPTO#735,860$-0Vol: $18
📢 MENTIONS#83,568$-1Vol: $1

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,582
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,443
Total Redeem
$22
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
108
total markets
Trades
243B / 239S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~55d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,951
Vol: $0
Week
$-2,235
Vol: $3,334
Month
$-3,063
Vol: $7,568
All Time
$-2,582
Vol: $25,443

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
75%
72W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$-2,582
Win Rate
75%
72W / 24L
Profit Factor
0.92x
Avg Win
$23
Avg Loss
$-77

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $987 (0.3822215852529564% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?$558
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?$245
Will Trump visit China by May 31?$184
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$94
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?$86
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$64
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?$46
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?$43
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$43
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026?$39

Top Losers

Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-08-01?$-788
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?$-760
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-80
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-08-01?$-38
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?$-32
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$-22
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$-15
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$-7
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$-6
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.023
Sortino
-0.015
HHI
688
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.009
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.3%
Top-5 markets
48.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.2

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 102s — normal for humanCV 2.35 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal30% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.64
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.9%
Mid (20-55c)3.7%
High (>55c)93.4%

Sessions

#12
7/16/2026, 11:16:28 AM19 trades$2,1725 min
5/11/2026, 11:12:00 AM6 trades$2,0886 min
8/4/2026, 11:54:23 AM23 trades$1,8672 min
5/5/2026, 2:12:30 PM7 trades$1,5540 min
6/1/2026, 2:50:46 PM9 trades$1,1253 min
8/1/2026, 12:31:47 PM33 trades$1,03013 min
5/14/2026, 1:26:53 PM13 trades$9111 min
4/27/2026, 7:49:30 AM6 trades$9060 min
5/14/2026, 1:18:20 PM2 trades$8000 min
7/3/2026, 4:03:10 PM14 trades$7474 min
5/9/2026, 1:57:45 PM5 trades$6230 min
7/18/2026, 2:05:04 PM26 trades$60617 min
5/9/2026, 1:48:42 PM4 trades$6021 min
8/3/2026, 12:03:35 PM3 trades$5370 min
5/6/2026, 11:17:34 AM2 trades$5260 min
4/29/2026, 5:25:08 PM13 trades$5262 min
7/16/2026, 11:15:52 PM5 trades$5060 min
4/16/2026, 12:25:10 AM13 trades$4772 min
4/15/2026, 2:56:00 PM10 trades$4465 min
5/6/2026, 1:33:14 PM2 trades$4160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-09
01-04
01-29
04-03
05-05
05-27
07-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 8 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.64/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L2.9 / M3.7 / H93.4