@quarter-kelly

#13,38956

0x0fe8106d0ad364822e59257e006e3047727b2cba

~80d· 80 markets · 428 tradesVol: $1,149,1382026-09-23 04:03:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

18% (14/78)0/20
1.69x (win $23,081 / loss $13,664)11.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.56315/15
Sortino 6.91610/10
$+0.2335 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 1369 (78 markets)5.7/10
9/54 profitable days (17%)0/10
Max DD 49% of peak ($8,204 / $16,673)4.2/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+10,933
Lottery Player
86% entries < $0.20
Diamond Hands
7% sells
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
74% maker orders

Categories

5
⚽ SPORTS#9,793$4,757Vol: $574,375
🏛️ POLITICS#4,571$7,917Vol: $495,946
📈 ECONOMICS#679,707$-164Vol: $43,815
🎭 CULTURE#817,333$-1,024Vol: $30,597
📢 MENTIONS#172,789$-173Vol: $1,405

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,933
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,149,138
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
80
total markets
Trades
397B / 31S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~80d

Periods

#2
Today
$64
Vol: $0
Week
$110
Vol: $455
Month
$959
Vol: $3,063
All Time
$10,933
Vol: $1,149,138

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
18%
14W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$10,933
Win Rate
18%
14W / 64L
Profit Factor
1.69x
Avg Win
$1,649
Avg Loss
$-217

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $20,847 (1.9068114193513568% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?$14,035
Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers?$5,982
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?$829
Biden drops out in July? $672
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky$632
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)$515
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?$226
Will Patrick Bertoletti eat the most hot dogs?$90

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-2,600
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?$-963
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34$-836
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?$-770
Bills vs. Jets$-725
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?$-681
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?$-602
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?$-511
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?$-307
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?$-305

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.081
Sortino
0.393
HHI
1126
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.234
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
22.2%
Top-5 markets
64.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.28
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.9

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 150s — normal for humanCV 4.28 — diverse sizes (human-like)34% night trades — never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal74% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.86
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)86.1%
Mid (20-55c)8.6%
High (>55c)5.3%

Sessions

#12
8/15/2024, 5:31:37 PM2 trades$8,3102 min
9/12/2024, 7:19:47 PM1 trades$7,5850 min
7/16/2024, 1:04:28 PM3 trades$4,1133 min
7/16/2024, 10:42:47 PM1 trades$4,0000 min
10/29/2024, 3:30:04 PM1 trades$2,5000 min
6/28/2024, 3:17:43 PM1 trades$2,4990 min
8/13/2024, 3:52:26 AM58 trades$2,47311 min
7/2/2024, 2:15:13 PM1 trades$1,4690 min
8/28/2026, 2:10:03 AM8 trades$1,4160 min
8/15/2024, 5:44:07 PM1 trades$1,0190 min
11/14/2024, 3:37:17 PM1 trades$1,0050 min
11/15/2024, 4:14:25 PM1 trades$1,0050 min
7/9/2024, 1:18:16 AM1 trades$9830 min
8/9/2024, 7:15:17 AM2 trades$9600 min
10/24/2024, 8:33:09 PM2 trades$9152 min
9/10/2024, 3:40:29 PM2 trades$7504 min
7/2/2024, 5:07:34 PM2 trades$7250 min
10/14/2024, 11:52:36 PM1 trades$7250 min
8/22/2024, 9:00:51 PM3 trades$7203 min
7/24/2024, 3:09:35 PM1 trades$7150 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-27
07-28
09-01
10-14
12-08
08-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 608 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
7.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.86/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L86.1 / M8.6 / H5.3