ricardoarnold

@ricardoarnold

#185,25345

0xe8e4686924c8467e5aafb5a27c261f9a2ff4bcaa

~36d· 36 markets · 75 tradesVol: $18,4692026-09-21 18:54:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

45
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

33% (10/30)1.7/20
1.53x (win $360 / loss $235)9.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.97715/15
Sortino 3.29110/10
$+0.0104 per $1 invested0.5/10
HHI 931 (30 markets)7.8/10
10/29 profitable days (34%)1.1/10
Max DD 100% of peak ($124 / $125)0/10

Badges

1
Profitable
PnL $+161

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#126,572$23Vol: $11,064
⚽ SPORTS#102,738$137Vol: $7,377
₿ CRYPTO#700,807$-0Vol: $16
🎭 CULTURE#380,543$-0Vol: $11

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$160
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$18,469
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
36
total markets
Trades
43B / 32S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~36d

Periods

#2
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$160
Vol: $18,469

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
33%
10W / 20L events
Realized PnL
$161
Win Rate
33%
10W / 20L
Profit Factor
1.53x
Avg Win
$36
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $283 (1.7506966375626976% of PnL)

Top Winners

Pacers vs. Pistons$126
Pelicans vs. Bulls$116
Dolphins vs. Patriots$41
Buccaneers vs. Texans$31
Who will speak more at VP Debate?$19
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?$12
Pirates vs. Orioles$12
Blue Jays vs. Orioles$4
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$0
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June?$0

Top Losers

Rockets vs. Nuggets$-103
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner$-64
Penguins vs. Canadiens$-56
Warriors vs. Grizzlies$-6
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner$-1
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?$-1
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?$-1
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?$-1
Fulham wins the Premier League?$-1
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.102
Sortino
0.141
HHI
3
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.196
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.9%
Top-5 markets
3.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0h
between trades
Avg Gap
8.2h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 18024s — normal for humanCV 1.49 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern17/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal19% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.47
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.6%
Mid (20-55c)30.2%
High (>55c)58.1%

Sessions

#12
8/3/2026, 7:40:02 PM4 trades$1,9063 min
8/4/2026, 10:32:57 PM10 trades$1,8934 min
8/5/2026, 9:00:27 PM4 trades$1,8873 min
8/1/2026, 1:27:47 PM2 trades$9570 min
8/4/2026, 7:47:41 PM2 trades$9490 min
8/6/2026, 8:41:14 PM3 trades$9460 min
8/9/2026, 10:09:01 AM2 trades$9460 min
8/4/2026, 7:54:12 PM2 trades$9440 min
8/6/2026, 8:28:23 PM2 trades$9380 min
1/14/2025, 4:22:47 AM1 trades$1030 min
1/15/2025, 3:11:23 AM1 trades$1030 min
1/16/2025, 2:03:41 AM1 trades$1030 min
10/7/2024, 6:41:13 AM1 trades$640 min
12/12/2024, 1:09:30 PM1 trades$560 min
10/6/2024, 2:58:01 PM1 trades$480 min
10/2/2024, 1:03:06 PM1 trades$340 min
9/15/2025, 12:47:06 PM1 trades$240 min
9/11/2025, 10:50:17 AM1 trades$150 min
10/1/2024, 7:48:20 AM1 trades$120 min
7/14/2025, 10:26:56 AM1 trades$60 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-01
12-12
01-15
04-01
04-17
05-07
06-23
09-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 71 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.47/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11.6 / M30.2 / H58.1