@weatherturd

#3,039,3386

0xbee804f32ad7d8e022c4aaecae383130810d15be

~6d· 19 markets · 558 tradesVol: $161,8162026-08-26 09:14:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

6
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

11% (2/19)0/20
0.93x (win $867 / loss $929)1.7/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.0000/15
Sortino 0.0000/10
$-0.0242 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1590 (19 markets)4.6/10
1/5 profitable days (20%)0/10
Max DD 164% of peak ($157 / $96)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
41% entries < $0.20

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#303,514$-2,186Vol: $161,816

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,186
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$161,816
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
19
total markets
Trades
99B / 459S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~6d

Periods

#2
Month
$-1,872
Vol: $141,162
All Time
$-2,186
Vol: $161,816

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
11%
2W / 17L events
Realized PnL
$-1,718
Win Rate
11%
2W / 17L
Profit Factor
0.93x
Avg Win
$434
Avg Loss
$-55

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $867 (0.504865613614406% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?$865
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5?$2

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 3?$-397
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3?$-195
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 5?$-99
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?$-41
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?$-37
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 5?$-32
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$-30
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?$-30
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 5?$-21
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 3?$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.091
Sortino
-0.164
HHI
3169
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.024
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
52.1%
Top-5 markets
89.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
69.8
Very active
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.7m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
48
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.6

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 167s — normal for humanCV 2.38 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern17/24 hours — normal schedule70 trades/day — mass trading2.4 markets/day — normal18% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29.37
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)41.4%
Mid (20-55c)16.2%
High (>55c)42.4%

Sessions

#12
8/2/2026, 9:08:11 PM26 trades$9290 min
8/3/2026, 3:04:59 PM29 trades$7016 min
8/4/2026, 5:24:56 PM15 trades$6311 min
8/3/2026, 8:30:24 AM96 trades$58214 min
8/3/2026, 3:20:57 PM1 trades$4990 min
8/4/2026, 9:35:23 AM14 trades$3940 min
8/2/2026, 9:49:11 PM11 trades$2541 min
8/3/2026, 1:27:09 PM15 trades$2420 min
8/5/2026, 10:20:29 PM5 trades$2300 min
8/3/2026, 2:36:57 PM3 trades$1660 min
7/29/2026, 11:25:30 AM27 trades$1603 min
8/5/2026, 11:03:33 PM1 trades$1500 min
7/29/2026, 10:46:12 AM12 trades$1393 min
8/3/2026, 8:49:45 AM14 trades$1330 min
8/4/2026, 4:32:12 PM19 trades$1110 min
7/29/2026, 10:39:35 AM18 trades$1101 min
8/3/2026, 10:59:51 AM17 trades$1021 min
8/3/2026, 2:25:30 PM15 trades$924 min
8/3/2026, 1:43:27 PM7 trades$874 min
8/3/2026, 11:10:59 AM7 trades$760 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
2026-07-29 12:00:00
2026-07-30 12:00:00
2026-08-03 12:00:00
2026-08-04 12:00:00
2026-08-05 12:00:00

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
82.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29.37/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L41.4 / M16.2 / H42.4