Multi-outcome · 6 open
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $17.9k
87.2%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $6.2k
5.7%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in three or fewer nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $38.7k
4.9%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $5.0k
4.5%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $2.6k
3.3%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
open · $3.8k
2.0%
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