Multi-outcome · 7 open
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Volume $158.2kTraders 15Trades 1,054
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
open · $5.9k
60.0%
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
open · $200
48.5%
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
open · $61.0k
48.0%
Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?
open · $658
44.0%
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
open · $5.8k
42.0%
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?
open · $4.9k
34.0%
Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?
open · $58.7k
24.0%
Top event traders (30d)
- 0x1697…d7111 mkts · $85
- 0x9e06…447d1 mkts · $59
- 0xad53…ef242 mkts · $38
- 0xf070…339f2 mkts · $18
- 0xb036…eea31 mkts · $16
- 0x8f13…daae1 mkts · $15
- 0x2baf…70ad1 mkts · $14
- 0xbe6e…acf12 mkts · $9
- 0xb5a1…c09d2 mkts · $8
- 0xac4a…bf1e1 mkts · $5
- 0x58fc…704f1 mkts · $4
- 0xe83c…0d7f2 mkts · $3
- 0x0851…e1191 mkts · $3
- 0x54c6…e5c21 mkts · $0