NegRisk

NegRisk is Polymarket’s wrapper for mutually exclusive events — who wins an election, which team lifts a cup — where at most one listed name can resolve YES. Instead of forcing a complete NO book on every rival, the exchange exposes a conversion: a basket of YES shares can stand in as the economic opposite of the remaining field.

That conversion is why Polydata’s methodology calls out prices that appear to print above $1, and why a 32-team World Cup tape looks nothing like a single binary. Buying YES on one candidate is not the same as buying NO on every other name; the wrapper collapses those legs so the cluster can stay liquid. Until resolution, implied probabilities across the field should sum near 100% after you account for spread and leftover dust on eliminated names. If they do not, you are usually looking at a stale book, not a free lunch.

When the event settles, one YES pays $1 and the others pay $0. Polydata still keys fills to the underlying condition. For research, read NegRisk from the event page rather than a single-outcome headline, and treat convert/merge rows as accounting — they are not a new directional bet. The same conditional tokens sit underneath; NegRisk is the product layer on top.