Oracle profile · 0xb82b…f4ca

0xb82b0091b15bbee5a23b40f68317bbd73308f4ca

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #5,756 of 502,378

Brier score

0.015

Accuracy

98.5%

Resolved positions

1,132

Resolved volume

$2.1K

Avg outcome rate

12.8%

Avg conf. on correct

96.8¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.101.8¢1.6%1,0020.016
0.90-1.0099.0¢99.2%1300.008

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=1,002). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xb82b0091b15bbee5a23b40f68317bbd73308f4ca. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.