Multi-outcome · 6 open · 2 closed hidden
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Volume $246.8kTraders 158Trades 11,792
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
open · $118.5k
54.0%
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
open · $104.2k
46.5%
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
open · $163.3k
1.3%
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
open · $65.3k
0.5%
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