Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

0x0f4d95f12e8537ecca25d475f1bdc1747692fb2f809bb66bda5ac9544e06fb61

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 22.5% · CLOB volume $221.1k · whales 24h net $1 (1 wallets) · 7d net $8.4k · 2/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

22.5%

Yes

Implied No

77.5%

Volume

$221.1k

CLOB

Traders

277

3,643 trades

Yes 22.5%No 77.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$8.4k

Buy

$14.6k

Sell

$6.2k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($1)
•7d whale net still positive ($8.4k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 22.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 02:08:23

131.6¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-04 02:08:23

76.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-03 18:02:44

454.5¢$4

NOBUY2026-08-03 18:02:44

128.2¢$4

YESBUY2026-08-03 13:54:06

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x74bf…2a6e	$65.1k	$27.0k	$38.1k	$11.1k
0x6bab…0fe5	$36.5k	$18.9k	$17.7k	$-1.2k
0x54a7…881b	$16.9k	$16.5k	$378	$-16.1k
0xbaa2…2c73	$16.6k	$13.7k	$2.9k	$-10.7k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x74bf…2a6e	473	$65.1k	$11.1k	1
0x6bab…0fe5	156	$50.4k	$-5.4k	3
0xbaa2…2c73	92	$37.3k	$-28.7k	2
0x54a7…881b	113	$27.2k

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