Glossary
Prediction market
An exchange where shares pay out on whether a specified event happens. Polymarket: USDC in, YES/NO (or NegRisk) tokens, UMA to settle, CLOB in between.
A prediction market is an exchange where shares pay out on whether a specified event happens, not on a company’s cash flows. Polymarket is one: USDC in, YES/NO (or NegRisk) tokens out, UMA to settle the question, a CLOB to trade in between. The price is a tradable implied probability, not a poll and not a sportsbook line with a house overround designed in.
That structure is why research looks different from punditry. You can see who is in the book, how much they traded, whether whales are lifting offers, and — after resolution — who actually got paid. Polydata is built for that tape: trader PnL, market pages, movers, resolved post-mortems. We do not take the other side of your bet.
Prediction markets are still markets. Thin liquidity, resolution-rule fights, and inventory from market makers all sit inside the percent. Read the question text. Check the spread. Convert the quote with the odds converter if you think in moneylines. Then use the rest of the site — methodology for how we count profit, this glossary for microstructure words, tools if you are sizing a hypothetical. One sentence: a prediction market turns a dispute about the future into a redeemable token, and last price is just where that token last changed hands.