Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

0x052776dbb92aa02fdb1f21a415a52cc422f2fd996eda91f717a1d7e1a751b633

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 5.5% · CLOB volume $204.4k · whales 24h net $1 (1 wallets) · 7d net $8.2k · 3/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

5.5%

Yes

Implied No

94.5%

Volume

$204.4k

CLOB

Traders

501

2,265 trades

Yes 5.5%No 94.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$8.2k

Buy

$19.5k

Sell

$11.4k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($1)
•7d whale net still positive ($8.2k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 5.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-01 13:28:57

1886.8¢$17

YESBUY2026-08-01 13:28:57

5.3¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-01 06:22:30

94.5¢$6

YESBUY2026-08-01 06:22:30

5.5¢$0

NOBUY2026-07-31 18:02:17

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x1c14…6342	$21.3k	$13.5k	$7.8k	$-5.7k
0x2222…f221	$9.0k	$3.2k	$5.9k	$2.7k
0xbaa2…2c73	$8.1k	$8.0k	$77	$-8.0k
0xd286…2322	$6.9k	$3.5k	$3.4k	$-128

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xdb35…b137	180	$308.0k	$101.7k	1
0x3024…b996	622	$265.1k	$21.3k	3
0x21e2…8893	44	$232.4k	$-136.5k	2
0x90d8…904c	119	$218.7k

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