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Fed rate hike by...?Active 127 days left

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

0x059db22dae2d735516017d47d1def0ea43e5d7221259c3aaa60c090d32566d4e

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 59.5% · CLOB volume $376.5k · whales 24h net $7.0k (29 wallets) · 7d net $38.6k · 2/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

59.5%

Yes

Implied No

40.5%

Volume

$376.5k

CLOB

Traders

676

4,348 trades

Yes 59.5%No 40.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

62.0% → 60.0% (-2.0pp)

See all movers →

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$7.0k

Buy

$17.2k

Sell

$10.2k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$38.6k

Buy

$77.3k

Sell

$38.7k

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 59.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($7.0k)
•7d whale net still positive ($38.6k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-04 20:44:41

42.0¢$230

NOBUY2026-08-04 20:44:41

238.1¢$527

NOBUY2026-08-04 20:44:41

243.9¢$22

NOBUY2026-08-04 19:12:23

60.0¢$47

YESBUY2026-08-04 19:12:23

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xeb6f…25f0	$92.9k	$57.5k	$35.4k	$-22.1k
0xc8ab…6418	$44.0k	$39.6k	$4.4k	$-35.1k
0xb0fc…ce0b	$30.2k	$16.9k	$13.3k	$-3.6k
0xbd14…76b4	$28.6k	$20.5k	$8.1k	$-12.4k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xeb6f…25f0	507	$295.1k	$-58.5k	3
0xa022…77f8	313	$240.8k	$35.4k	3
0xc8ab…6418	433	$210.8k	$-201.9k	3
0xb0fc…ce0b	443	$184.5k

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