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Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Active 149 days left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

0x627ed310dc3977b2d71d96a4f2fccd6050553f6f165efd6c29578f5678f3f863

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 54.0% · CLOB volume $475.2k · whales 24h net $775 (10 wallets) · 7d net $21.1k · 2/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

54.0%

Yes

Implied No

46.0%

Volume

$475.2k

CLOB

Traders

962

11,249 trades

Yes 54.0%No 46.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

55.0% → 54.7% (-0.3pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$775

Buy

$1.4k

Sell

$582

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$21.1k

Buy

$34.4k

Sell

$13.3k

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 54.0%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($775)
•7d whale net still positive ($21.1k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

—BUY2026-08-04 16:20:06

47.0¢$218

NOBUY2026-08-04 16:20:06

212.8¢$463

NOBUY2026-08-04 12:33:54

222.2¢$315

YESBUY2026-08-04 12:33:54

45.0¢$139

YESBUY2026-08-04 12:33:54

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xa2f1…2d22	$57.9k	$27.8k	$30.1k	$2.3k
0xc932…e6a5	$26.5k	$16.1k	$10.4k	$-5.6k
0x8f69…7df1	$16.2k	$16.1k	$14	$-16.1k
0x21ff…0d71	$15.3k	$15.3k	$0	$-15.3k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xa2f1…2d22	159	$57.9k	$2.3k	1
0x8f69…7df1	147	$52.7k	$-48.4k	3
0x9631…89a1	178	$47.2k	$-7.4k	2
0x172b…a0c9	518	$45.9k

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