Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

0x923a43381c223736db972fb20e8e6e4954d2c1713e3ba729530abaf51accbc1a

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 0.1% · CLOB volume $9.9k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $0 · 5/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.1%

Yes

Implied No

99.8%

Volume

$9.9k

CLOB

Traders

420 trades

Yes 0.1%No 99.8%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Bull case

•Market still active / open
•Watch for whale buy acceleration vs mid

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.1% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($9.9k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

35 shown

NOBUY2026-07-27 04:02:19

99.9¢$100

—BUY2026-07-27 04:02:19

0.1¢$0

NOBUY2026-07-27 04:02:18

99.9¢$40

—BUY2026-07-27 04:02:18

0.1¢$0

NOBUY2026-07-23 15:43:33

100000.0¢

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x4e39…8cbf	$1.1k	$1.1k	$0	$-1.1k
0x22e0…3adb	$501	$1	$500	$499
0x3f91…2819	$501	$1	$500	$499
0xee77…1eec	$219	$219	$0	$-219

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x7f9e…3a0e	31	$37.8k	$-10.9k	1
0xdd9e…49b3	53	$18.9k	$-18.4k	3
0xeb49…693e	21	$15.6k	$-4.5k	1
0x8afa…adb6	41	$13.3k

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