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Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Active Ended

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

0xf691956d44187f9296718a26b10c03d3b85e3369e2098ab2188f765ef4dc97b7

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 53.5% · CLOB volume $393.7k · whales 24h net $225 (6 wallets) · 7d net $4.0k · 2/9 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

53.5%

Yes

Implied No

46.5%

Volume

$393.7k

CLOB

Traders

914

9,392 trades

Yes 53.5%No 46.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

55.0% → 54.0% (-1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$225

Buy

$341

Sell

$116

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$4.0k

Buy

$7.4k

Sell

$3.3k

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 53.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($225)
•7d whale net still positive ($4.0k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 17:13:36

188.7¢$113

NOBUY2026-08-04 17:13:36

212.8¢$113

NOBUY2026-08-04 17:00:18

188.7¢$40

NOBUY2026-08-04 17:00:18

212.8¢$40

—BUY2026-08-04 08:49:29

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xc932…e6a5	$60.7k	$42.2k	$18.6k	$-23.6k
0xa0b6…3961	$19.1k	$8.3k	$10.7k	$2.4k
0xc93c…52f1	$17.7k	$12.5k	$5.2k	$-7.3k
0x6b0e…e3ea	$12.4k	$12.4k	$0	$-12.4k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc932…e6a5	266	$65.3k	$-23.9k	2
0xa0b6…3961	176	$19.3k	$2.4k	2
0xc93c…52f1	48	$17.7k	$-7.3k	1
0x6b0e…e3ea	347	$13.5k

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