0xbe9d61d80c767264a0adc8a16453fbcaf0413e673e665cc7c14701691143fac0
As of Oct 8, 2026, “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?” trades at 3% YES on Polymarket with $3.10M total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 3.3% · CLOB volume $3.10M · whales 24h net $46.9k (15 wallets) · 7d net $169.1k · 2/3 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
3.3%
Yes
Implied No
96.8%
No
Volume
$3.10M
CLOB
Traders
4,686
19,958 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
3.4% → 3.2% (-0.2pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$46.9k
Buy
$91.2k
Sell
$44.3k
Whales
15
Last 7 days
Net flow
$169.1k
Buy
$319.1k
Sell
$150.1k
Whales
73
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2889…9226 | $329.9k | $176.4k | $153.5k | $-22.8k |
| 0xfffa…864b | $153.8k | $153.8k | $0 | $-153.8k |
| 0x11fc…dc48 | $58.6k | $51.7k | $6.9k | $-44.8k |
| 0xd25b…9f3d | $50.4k | $29.3k | $21.1k | $-8.2k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2889…9226 | 119 | $329.9k | $-22.8k | 1 |
| 0xfffa…864b | 226 | $153.8k | $-153.8k | 1 |
| 0x11fc…dc48 | 13 | $58.6k | $-44.8k | 1 |
| 0xd25b…9f3d | 57 | $50.4k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
2 open · 3 total · Event board
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
open · $10.9k
8.5%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
open · $3.10M
3.3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
closed · $1.05M
0.0%
| 0x30e5…1549 | $42.6k | $25.0k | $17.6k | $-7.4k |
| 0xe52c…6924 | $41.8k | $41.8k | $0 | $-41.8k |
| 0x9941…55a5 | $41.0k | $20.0k | $21.0k | $1.1k |
| 0x9589…39b0 | $38.1k | $17.8k | $20.3k | $2.5k |
| 0xab01…2558 | $30.5k | $14.9k | $15.7k | $783 |
| 0xa61e…0abd | $29.7k | $29.7k | $0 | $-29.7k |
| 0x8190…b247 | $25.8k | $21.8k | $4.0k | $-17.8k |
| 0x0b65…293e | $24.6k | $24.6k | $0 | $-24.6k |
| $-8.2k |
| 1 |
| 0x30e5…1549 | 20 | $42.6k | $-7.4k | 1 |
| 0xe52c…6924 | 1 | $41.8k | $-41.8k | 1 |
| 0x9941…55a5 | 2 | $41.0k | $1.1k | 1 |
| 0x9589…39b0 | 88 | $38.1k | $2.5k | 1 |
| 0xab01…2558 | 2 | $30.5k | $783 | 1 |
| 0xa61e…0abd | 182 | $29.7k | $-29.7k | 1 |
