Multi-outcome · 22 open
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $118.4k
35.0%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
open · $114.0k
34.5%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $18.0k
11.1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $25.2k
4.4%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $13.8k
2.9%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $13.7k
2.5%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $19.0k
1.6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $17.9k
1.4%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $22.2k
1.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $13.4k
0.9%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $14.5k
0.8%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $19.0k
0.8%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $15.8k
0.8%
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $14.3k
0.7%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $17.5k
0.7%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $14.2k
0.7%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
open · $14.4k
0.7%
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