Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

0x0098859230696a9dcaa04f3bddea2ec8c154a4ae5e21de56d99ea2ebd5430755

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 27.5% · CLOB volume $18.6k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $112 · 6/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

27.5%

Yes

Implied No

72.5%

Volume

$18.6k

CLOB

Traders

184

921 trades

Yes 27.5%No 72.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$112

Buy

$384

Sell

$272

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($112)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 27.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($18.6k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-02 06:22:59

28.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-02 06:22:59

72.0¢$4

YESBUY2026-08-02 04:54:47

28.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-02 04:54:47

72.0¢$4

YESBUY2026-08-02 04:31:44

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xc50c…3017	$967	$633	$335	$-298
0x3dca…3c13	$632	$158	$474	$316
0xc3fc…484a	$625	$437	$188	$-249
0xc602…7fc1	$504	$426	$78	$-348

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc3fc…484a	44	$2.8k	$-1.3k	2
0xbd14…76b4	52	$2.8k	$-1.2k	2
0x2282…73e8	13	$2.2k	$326	1
0xc50c…3017	67	$2.2k

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