Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

0x4dc3f73d4e21634aaef2f2e183f94e8a970c38cefc7721553eba954b06e0c177

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 0.4% · CLOB volume $7.3k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $0 · 6/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.4%

Yes

Implied No

99.5%

Volume

$7.3k

CLOB

Traders

234 trades

Yes 0.4%No 99.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Bull case

•Market still active / open
•Watch for whale buy acceleration vs mid

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.4% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($7.3k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

22 shown

—BUY2026-07-21 06:03:22

0.3¢$1

NOBUY2026-07-21 06:03:22

33333.8¢$24

NOBUY2026-07-21 06:03:22

33333.3¢$300

NOBUY2026-07-21 06:03:22

33333.3¢$9

NOBUY2026-07-17 17:37:45

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x22e0…3adb	$334	$1	$333	$332
0x5d77…6bd8	$300	$300	$0	$-300
0x0380…073d	$215	$215	$0	$-214
0x0873…09e8	$147	$147	$0	$-147

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xbd14…76b4	52	$2.8k	$-1.2k	2
0xc3fc…484a	41	$2.8k	$-1.3k	2
0x2282…73e8	13	$2.2k	$326	1
0xc50c…3017	67	$2.2k

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