Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?

0x03ee7e5103cd121c0cd5e77fd07da606a13b0b96f14744762033a2b01cfc785d

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 34.5% · CLOB volume $17.0k · whales 24h net $258 (12 wallets) · 7d net $6.8k · 9/13 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

34.5%

Yes

Implied No

65.5%

Volume

$17.0k

CLOB

Traders

137

469 trades

Yes 34.5%No 65.5%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$258

Buy

$418

Sell

$160

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$6.8k

Buy

$12.0k

Sell

$5.1k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($258)
•7d whale net still positive ($6.8k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 34.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($17.0k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-07-21 16:14:01

36.0¢$18

NOBUY2026-07-21 16:14:01

277.8¢$50

YESBUY2026-07-21 15:58:48

36.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-07-21 15:58:48

277.8¢$3

YESBUY2026-07-21 14:24:01

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc8ab…6418	245	$19.0k	$-18.2k	13
0x05df…882d	151	$17.5k	$-8.2k	3
0x44c1…ebc1	51	$15.5k	$-4.7k	2
0x6dc7…2ff6	90	$13.3k

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