Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?

0xbaab28e6ebff145d042ecfc46aa9eaab3552d6d1351c50c68714e8198e94f6b6

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 51.0% · CLOB volume $8.3k · whales 24h net $103 (14 wallets) · 7d net $289 · 9/13 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

51.0%

Yes

Implied No

49.0%

Volume

$8.3k

CLOB

Traders

52 trades

Yes 51.0%No 49.0%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$103

Buy

$309

Sell

$206

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$289

Buy

$748

Sell

$459

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 51.0%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($103)
•7d whale net still positive ($289)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($8.3k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

52 shown

—BUY2026-07-21 15:56:42

54.5¢$55

NOBUY2026-07-21 15:56:42

181.8¢$51

—BUY2026-07-21 15:56:42

46.0¢$10

—BUY2026-07-21 15:56:42

46.0¢$12

—BUY2026-07-21 15:54:28

52.0¢

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc8ab…6418	245	$19.0k	$-18.2k	13
0x05df…882d	151	$17.5k	$-8.2k	3
0x44c1…ebc1	51	$15.5k	$-4.7k	2
0x6dc7…2ff6	90	$13.3k

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